U.S. Leading Indicators Were Unchanged in September

By Jessica Coacci

U.S. leading economic indicators held steady in September, as weakening consumer expectations offset gains in manufacturing hours and other index components.

The Leading Economic Index, or LEI, published by research group The Conference Board, was unchanged at 99.6 following a 0.1% decline in August.

"The US LEI was flat in September. However, due to an upward revision to July's data, the index is at a higher level than last month's report for August," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, a senior manager at The Conference Board.

Five out of 10 components made positive contributions to the LEI in September, led by the interest rate spread and average weekly hours in manufacturing, the survey said. Those gains were offset by a large decline in consumer expectations and much smaller negative contributions from stock prices, new orders for capital goods and building permits.

In addition, the LEI's six-month growth rate increased slightly, which suggests the economy is still growing and will continue to grow, but is becoming less dependent on consumer spending and more dependent on business investment.

The Conference Board now expects real GDP to grow by a 2.2% annualized rate in 2026, with the outlook for 2027 at 2%.

The LEI is meant as a predictive index. It is based on 10 components, among them manufacturers' new orders, building permits for new private housing units, stock prices and consumer expectations, and aims to signal shifts in the business cycle.

Write to Jessica Coacci at jessica.coacci@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

October 22, 2026 10:28 ET (14:28 GMT)