ICE Canada Weekly Outlook: Harvest, Fund Selling Pressure Canola

WINNIPEG, Manitoba--Harvest progress across the Prairies was just one reason for the oilseed's slide on the Intercontinental Exchange during the week ended Oct. 21.

In Manitoba, 92 per cent of the canola crop was combined as of Oct. 20, with Alberta and Saskatchewan assumed to have already harvested 80 and 90 per cent of their respective canola.

Meanwhile, the November and January canola contracts both fell below their respective 50- and 100-day averages. November canola lost C$39.70 per tonne to close at C$772. The January contract dropped C$39.10 per tonne at C$785.50.

Tony Tryhuk of RBC Dominion Securities in Winnipeg explained that while the harvest prevented canola from making gains, fund selling also led to a sharp drop in prices.

"We hadn't closed below the 100-day moving average in months and once that was done, anybody who would've been a speculator would've started to liquidate positions and helped accelerate losses," Tryhuk said.

However, one factor preventing further losses in the Canadian oilseed may be the steadfastness of farmers holding onto their positions and waiting for prices to turn upward.

"The commodity funds have primarily been responsible for the losses in recent days. The fact that the farmer hasn't been following the market down is strangely a bit supportive," he said.

Tryhuk identified a technical level for January canola at C$777/tonne, where prices could start to rise again.

He added that canola crop yields and quality have disappointed farmers so far but only because they fell short of their own higher expectations.

"I think producers were looking for higher yields based on crop development during the growing season and when they finally got a chance to take the crop off because there were delays and (the canola) was wet and wasn't meeting expectations," Tryhuk said. "I think on average, yields should still be in line with historical averages and production should be quite large."

Source: Glacier FarmMedia, news@farmmedia.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

October 21, 2026 16:44 ET (20:44 GMT)