North American Morning Briefing: Stock Futures Rise as Investors Await Inflation Report

Stock futures were up Wednesday as investors awaited consumer-price

inflation data for September.

The data will set the tone for the Federal Reserve's next interest-rate decision on Oct. 28. According to CME's FedWatch tool, traders see a 21% probability of a rate hike this month and an 88% probability of a hike in December.

If inflation rises more than expected amid a backdrop of a market already anxious about price pressures, investors could question expectations that the Fed will leave rates unchanged in October, as well as reassessing how much rates will rise after that, Russell Investments said.

Meanwhile, oil prices were up after Yemen's Houthi militants struck a building at the headquarters of Saudi Arabia's state oil giant Aramco, while a series of attacks against shipping in the Strait of Hormuz continues to keep the geopolitical risk premium high.

The International Energy Agency said global diesel supplies are expected to remain tight well into next year as Middle East fuel exports struggle to recover despite a recent rebound in crude shipments. For the day ahead, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and BlackRock are all set to report earnings.

Watch For:

U.S. CPI for September; Bank of America 3Q earnings; BlackRock 3Q earnings; Morgan Stanley 3Q earnings

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MARKET WRAPS Forex:

The dollar fell slightly against a basket of currencies, tracking a decline in Treasury yields ahead of the release of September consumer-price inflation data today.

Bonds:

Treasury yields fell across the curve on Wednesday.

"We expect Treasury yields to decline slightly over the next 12 months," DWS said. "Alongside attractive yields, this creates scope for capital gains." Energy:

December Brent crude futures fell 0.9%, while WTI for November delivery edged up 0.4%. Both benchmarks were down more than 2% in early trading.

Metals:

Gold prices continued to trade in a narrow range as investors awaited the release of U.S. consumer price index data for cues on the Fed's monetary policy path.

Morgan Stanley sees bullion reaching $5,000 an ounce by the second quarter of 2027.

Iron

Iron ore prices were lower in early Asian trade as demand expectations remained weak. Poor profitability at Chinese steel mills fuels expectations of further production cuts, weakening iron-ore demand as a result, Baocheng Futures said.

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

Chip-Machine Supplier ASML Boosts Guidance for Third Time on Surging AI Demand

ASML Holding improved its annual forecasts for the third time this year and said it was looking at ways to boost production of its semiconductor-making machines even more as the race to build artificial-intelligence infrastructure fuels demand for advanced chips.

The Dutch group is projecting annual sales between 44 billion euros and 45 billion euros, equivalent to a range of $49.27 billion to $50.39 billion, compared with prior guidance of 43 billion euros to 45 billion euros. Meanwhile, its gross margin-a closely watched metric of pricing power and profitability-should come in at roughly 56%, compared with a previous guidance range of 54% to 56%.

Bank of America to Pay $1.2 Billion to Settle Violations of Money Laundering, Sanctions Laws

Regulators fined Bank of America $1.2 billion after finding it had insufficient systems to monitor and report possible financial crimes, including money laundering by Chinese underground bankers and suspicious activity along the southwest U.S. border.

Officials on Tuesday said Bank of America had failed to report to the appropriate authorities more than $5 billion in suspicious activity, some of which they said posed a national-security risk.

OpenAI Engineer Allegedly Hid Toilet Paper-Wrapped Mic in Conference Room

SAN FRANCISCO-An OpenAI engineer visited a familiar conference room in one of the company's San Francisco office buildings last week-and peered behind a television set mounted to a wall.

Abdulrahman Alfozan had spent weeks scoping out the room, which could only be reserved by executives at the artificial-intelligence company and their assistants, federal prosecutors allege. The conference room was often used for leadership meetings, briefings with government officials and business partners as well as top-secret research and product discussions.

Houthi Strike Hits Building at Saudi Aramco Headquarters

Yemen's Houthi militants struck a building at the headquarters of Saudi Arabia's state oil giant in the eastern city of Dhahran, people familiar with the matter said, as fighting intensified between the kingdom and the Iran-backed group.

The kingdom's Energy Ministry said a Saudi Aramco administrative building had been targeted leading to a limited fire. The missile hit an office building at the complex and damaged a number of floors, the people said. No fatalities or injuries were reported.

Oil Prices Rise as Traders Weigh Saudi Aramco Attack Report, Hormuz Shipping Risks

Oil prices rose Wednesday as traders weighed persistent Middle East supply risks after a reported attack on a Saudi Aramco building and fresh strikes on tankers around the Strait of Hormuz.

December Brent crude futures rose 0.2% to $105.92 a barrel, while December West Texas Intermediate futures gained 0.2% to $93.39 a barrel. The gains followed a mixed session Tuesday, when Brent settled lower while front-month U.S. crude edged higher.

Chinese Exports Soar in September

China's export growth accelerated in September, beating market expectations and potentially threatening to heighten trade tensions with major partners.

Exports rose 36.3% from a year earlier in September, accelerating from August's 25.0% increase, according to data released Wednesday by the General Administration of Customs. The reading topped the 25.0% increase forecast by economists in a Wall Street Journal survey.

Global Diesel Squeeze to Drag Into 2027, IEA Says

Global diesel supplies are expected to remain tight well into next year as Middle East fuel exports struggle to recover despite a recent rebound in crude shipments, the International Energy Agency said.

Supply fell by 1.7 million barrels a day in the third quarter, as the Iran war curtailed flows through the Strait of Hormuz-a critical waterway carrying large volumes of Gulf oil and refined products-while Russia, one of the world's largest exporters of refined fuels, had to cut output due to Ukrainian attacks on its refineries.

Houthi Strike Hits Building at Saudi Aramco Headquarters

Yemen's Houthi militants struck a building at the headquarters of Saudi Arabia's state oil giant in the eastern city of Dhahran, people familiar with the matter said, as fighting intensified between the kingdom and the Iran-backed group.

The kingdom's Energy Ministry said a Saudi Aramco administrative building had been targeted leading to a limited fire. The missile hit an office building at the complex and damaged a number of floors, the people said. No fatalities or injuries were reported.

The Houthis Are Building an Advanced Missile With Chinese Parts

Houthi militants are attempting to produce their own advanced medium-range ballistic missiles using Chinese-delivered parts, a new report shows, a technological advance that would raise the threat posed by the Iran-backed group.

The Houthis shipped in from a Chinese supplier a range of components needed to make a version of one of Iran's most powerful weapons, the Kheibar Shekan Iranian precision-guided missile, said the report by Conflict Armament Research, a group that works in conflict zones and reports on the use of weapons and their supply chains. The Houthi missile would have a range up to about 1,200 miles, putting all of Saudi Arabia and Israel within reach.

Trump Can't Reinstate White House Ban on CNN, Politico and MS NOW, Judge Rules

The Trump administration must maintain White House access for reporters from CNN, MS NOW and Politico while a legal challenge plays out over President Trump's attempt to ban the news outlets, a federal judge ruled on Tuesday.

Judge Timothy Kelly in Washington, D.C., granted the outlets' request for a preliminary injunction to block the administration from enforcing the ban while their litigation is ongoing.

Why U.S. Airstrikes Are Failing to Stop the Global Cocaine Boom

BUENAVENTURA, Colombia-The Trump administration's bombing campaign against cocaine-smuggling speedboats is starting to have an impact on the global drug trade-but not necessarily in a good way.

Thirteen months into the initiative, Colombian navy divers are detecting greater use of "parasites"-metal modules packed with cocaine that traffickers bolt onto the hulls of freighters preparing to steam out of this country's largest Pacific port.

Write to priscila.barrera@wsj.com

TODAY IN CANADA Earnings:

Nothing major scheduled.

Economic Indicators (ET):

0830 Aug Building permits Stocks to Watch:

Endeavour Silver: Restored Guanaceví Mill to Full Capacity Following Trunnion Replacement

RBC Issues C$500M Indigenous Bond to Finance Indigenous Communities and Businesses

Expected Major Events for Wednesday 06:00/GER: Sep WPI

08:00/FRA: Oct IEA Oil Market Report

11:00/US: 10/09 MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

12:30/CAN: Aug Building permits

12:30/US: Sep Real Earnings

12:30/US: Sep CPI

18:00/US: U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book

18:00/US: Sep Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts and Outlays of the U.S. Government

20:30/US: API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

23:50/JPN: Aug Orders Received for Machinery

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October 14, 2026 06:15 ET (10:15 GMT)