Wheat Futures Fall; Traders Use Caution — Daily Grain Highlights

By Kirk Maltais

-Wheat for December delivery fell 0.6% to $6.68 1/4 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Tuesday as grain traders took a cautious approach to recent market data.

-Soybeans for November delivery fell 0.4% to 12.82 3/4 a bushel.

-Corn for December delivery fell 0.1% to $4.82 3/4 a bushel.

HIGHLIGHTS

Treading Lightly: CBOT grain futures turned lower in afternoon trading, with fund traders moving cautiously. "I think it's all money flow," said Karl Setzer of Consus Ag Consulting. "Nobody wants to extend the market too far in either direction." Analysts say that the back-and-forth between traders buying on breaks and farmers selling into rallies is keeping the market stable.

Playing Catch-Up: This afternoon's weekly Crop Progress report, delayed from yesterday due to the Columbus Day/Indigenous Peoples Day holidays, may have big changes from the prior week, said Matt Zeller of StoneX in a note. He believes the data will "show major catch-up on both fall harvest and winter wheat planting." Weather last week was seen turning drier for many areas, allowing farmers who haven't been able to get into fields an opportunity to do so. Hurricane Isaias also didn't cause as much damage as some feared when it made landfall over the weekend.

Missing in Action: The lack of new U.S. soybean flash sales to Chinese buyers is conspicuous to grain traders, said AgResource in a note. "China has been largely absent from U.S. soybean purchases since its Golden Week holiday ended late last week," said the firm. "The bulls need China to return to U.S. soybeans, with an estimated 10 million metric tons still to be secured before Dec. 31 if China adheres to last November's Busan Agreement." The firm estimates that China has purchased roughly 15 million tons of soybeans since the agreement, which isn't enough to satisfy the terms of last year's deal.

INSIGHT

Truth Bombs: USDA estimates from last week's WASDE report continue to be under the microscope by some traders, who contend that the changes made in certain areas don't add up. "The weekly crop condition ratings declined, yet the yield estimates increased," said Michael Cordonnier of Soybean and Corn Advisor Inc. regarding corn forecasts. "It does not seem possible that two things can both be correct." Cordonnier now forecasts U.S. corn yield at 180 bushels an acre, and 53.1 bpa for soybean yield.

Passing the Buck: Soybean futures, along with soyoil futures, rose after news of a new EPA proposal. Bloomberg reported that the EPA is planning to require oil refineries to blend 100% of the volumes of renewable fuel that smaller refineries have been exempted from. The SRE program has been controversial, with small refineries located in states such as Texas and Wyoming claiming that they will be economically disadvantaged if forced to blend renewable fuels. In 2025, the EPA granted RINs covering 1.76 billion gallons of fuel for 29 small refineries. This new rule would force larger refineries to blend that exempted volume instead, supporting demand for agricultural feedstock.

AHEAD

-The EIA will release its Weekly Petroleum Status Update report at 10:30 a.m. ET Thursday.

-The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday.

-The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.

Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

October 13, 2026 15:12 ET (19:12 GMT)