Corn Futures Fall After USDA Projects Larger U.S. Crop — Daily Grain Highlights

By Kirk Maltais

-Corn for December delivery fell 4% to $4.80 1/2 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Friday after the USDA unexpectedly raising its outlook for corn yield by 2.7 bushels-per-acre.

-Wheat for December delivery fell 1.8% to $6.70 3/4 a bushel.

-Soybeans for November delivery rose 0.4% to $12.92 1/4 a bushel.

HIGHLIGHTS

Liquidation Rush: CBOT corn futures fell nearly 6% after the WASDE report's release. The report showed higher corn production and yields, opposite of what analysts expected. The surprise sparked liquidation of the sizable long position held by fund traders. "The sharp corn yield increase caught the market wrong footed, which is causing heavy liquidation pressure," said Brian Grete of Commstock Investments. "The bearish USDA surprise has changed the money flow game." Last week's Commitments of Traders report from the CFTC showed a net long fund position of 377,850 contracts, which is slightly down from highs seen earlier this year.

Paring Back: After diving nearly 6%, CBOT corn futures managed to cut some losses before trading concluded Friday. While showing some easing, market conditions remain primed for further selling of corn futures ahead, said Dave Toth of StoneX in a note. "It is highly likely that the extent of today's plunge is due at least in part to the overall market forcing the capitulation of this long-and-wrong exposure," he said. "Further meltdown should not surprise."

Partial Offset: Outside of corn, CBOT wheat dropped on the WASDE's partial offset of reductions made to the amount of wheat Russia is expected to export this marketing year. Russian exports were cut by 3 million metric tons to 40 million tons. But those cuts were partially offset by gains of half-a-million tons each for Argentina and Canada. This, along with the USDA projecting a slightly larger wheat crop in the U.S. this year sent CBOT wheat futures lower.

INSIGHT

'Shocking' Numbers: Analysts surveyed by WSJ were well off-the-mark this month, having forecast the WASDE to show corn yield to decline to 177.6 bushels an acre, with production falling 84 million bushels from the prior month to 15.72 billion bushels. "Shocking corn report with spillover selling hitting the wheat and beans so far," said Doug Bergman of RCM Alternatives in a note after the report's release.

Looking for Alternatives: Russia and Ukraine are engaging with other channels to try and get grain shipments out of the besieged Black Sea region. "Russia is increasingly relying on its Baltic Sea ports for this purpose," said Commerzbank in a note, citing a representative from Russian Railways stating that the ports have almost tripled in capacity, to 23.5 million metric tons of grain. Ukraine is attempting to ship more grains via the Danube River, Commerzbank adds. Even so, the flow of grains coming out of the Black Sea region is still much less than this time last year, showing how important the ports that have been damaged this year are to shipping operations.

AHEAD

-The USDA will be closed in observance of Columbus Day/Indigenous People's Day on Monday, reopening on Tuesday.

-The USDA will release its weekly Grain Export Inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Tuesday.

-The USDA will release its weekly Crop Progress report at 4 p.m. ET Tuesday.

Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

October 09, 2026 15:21 ET (19:21 GMT)