American Oil Refiners Are Printing Money as Wars Shrink Global Energy Supplies — Commodities Roundup

MARKET MOVEMENTS:

--Brent crude oil is up 0.3% at $104.63 a barrel.

--European benchmark gas is up 3.3% at 81.47 euros a megawatt-hour.

--Copper futures are up 1.7% at $14,534 a metric ton.

--Gold futures are up 1.2% at $4,209.10 a troy ounce.

TOP STORY:

American Oil Refiners Are Printing Money as Wars Shrink Global Energy Supplies

The earnings of America's largest oil refiners are set to go gangbusters in the third quarter, spurred on by the conflicts in the Middle East and in Ukraine that have sent the world scrambling for fuel.

Wall Street analysts are projecting that independent U.S. fuel makers Valero Energy VLO, Marathon Petroleum MPC, Phillips 66 PSX and others are on track to crush their near-record earnings in the second quarter that ended in June. All three companies that quarter posted their highest profits since the onset of Russia's war in Ukraine.

OTHER STORIES:

BP Curbs Production at Two Platforms in Gulf of Mexico Due to Hurricane Isaias

BP BP said it has temporarily curbed production and removed all personnel from its Na Kika and Thunder Horse platforms in the Gulf of Mexico as it prepares for Hurricane Isaias.

Oil companies operating in the Gulf of Mexico, which the U.S. now calls the Gulf of America, have been cutting production and evacuating personnel from offshore facilities. The storm has intensified and is expected to make landfall on the northern Gulf Coast on Friday or early Saturday.

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Oil Prices Retreat After Trump Appears to Rule out Iran Strikes Before Midterms

Oil prices fell Friday after surging the previous day, as traders weighed President Trump's pledge not to attack Iran before the U.S. midterm elections against persistent shipping risks in the Persian Gulf and extensive offshore production shut-ins in the Gulf of Mexico.

December Brent crude futures fell 1.4% to $102.80 a barrel, while December West Texas Intermediate futures dropped 1.1% to $89.75 a barrel. Both benchmarks had gained 4.4% Thursday, with Brent rising as much as 5% earlier in the session to $105.23 a barrel and WTI also climbing 5% to $92.70 before paring gains.

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Iran and Houthis Try to Regain Upper Hand in Hormuz With Spate of New Attacks

DUBAI-Just last week, Iran appeared to have its back against the wall in its war with the U.S., its ports blockaded and its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz slipping. Now, Tehran is trying to regain the upper hand.

Iran and its Houthi allies in Yemen delivered a one-two punch against Persian Gulf oil producers in separate attacks on Wednesday night and Thursday morning that sent oil prices sharply higher and further shattered the sense of security in Saudi Arabia's capital city.

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Delta's CEO on Skipping Starlink, Premium-Travel Rush and High Fuel Prices

Fuel is taking a chunk out of Delta Air Lines' DAL profits. The carrier on Friday sharply lowered its outlook for the year, reflecting a $6 billion increase in fuel costs.

But even with fuel prices back on the rise, Delta Chief Executive Ed Bastian said his airline-the most profitable in the U.S.-is best-positioned to ride out the wild swings.

MARKET TALKS:

Livestock Futures Mixed Ahead of WASDE -- Market Talk

1049 ET - Livestock futures on the CME are mixed ahead of the WASDE due at noon eastern time. The report will show updated figures for pork and beef production and demand, which can be a market mover--although typically not nearly as strongly as the moves seen in grains post-report. Live cattle is up 0.5%, pushing towards the resistance point of $2.28-2.30 a pound, says AgResource in a note. The firm says that support for cattle can be seen around $2.175 a pound. Lean hogs are down 1.3%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

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U.S. Natural Gas Futures Pick Up in Early Trading -- Market Talk

1007 ET - Natural gas futures are higher after retreating Thursday on a slightly bigger-than-expected weekly storage build, while effects from Hurricane Isaias are seen mixed with small offshore production losses offset by impacts on demand. LNG exports will likely decrease due to shipping delays, and demand is expected to be lost to power outages and flooding, NatGasWeather.com says in a note. "The storm won't contribute much to lost cooling demand due to temperatures already being relatively comfortable," the forecaster adds. Nymex natural gas is up 1% at $3.201/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

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Grains Turn Higher Ahead of WASDE -- Market Talk

0958 ET - CBOT grain futures were mixed overnight, but turn higher in early trading--with most-active corn futures up 0.1%, soybeans rising 0.6%, and wheat up 0.1%. Traders have been positioning for the monthly WASDE report at noon eastern time, which is expected to update production outlooks for U.S. crops. The October WASDE is often a steady report, says Matt Zeller of StoneX in a note, but traders are leaving room for a potential surprise. Analysts surveyed by WSJ are projecting slightly higher soybean output and corn production inching lower. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

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Oil Futures Return Some Gains As U.S. Strike Concerns Wane -- Market Talk

0935 ET - Oil futures are giving back some of the previous day's gains after President Trump said the U.S. isn't planning to strike Iran before midterm elections on November 3. Trump's comment "has placed the crude markets back on the defensive amid what is likely to be a lull in attacks through the Strait of Hormuz," Ritterbusch & Associates says in a note. Hurricane Isaias prompted U.S. Gulf producers to evacuate platforms, shutting in production, although the storm track lies east of most U.S. Gulf coast refineries. Isaias became a Category 3 hurricane Friday morning, and is expected to make landfall late Friday or early Saturday, according to the National Hurricane Center. WTI is off 0.8% at $90.78 a barrel and Brent is down 1.1% at $103.19 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

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Black Sea Grain Shippers Attempt Alternative Routes -- Market Talk

0930 ET - Russia and Ukraine are engaging with other channels to try and get grain shipments out of the besieged Black Sea region. "Russia is increasingly relying on its Baltic Sea ports for this purpose," says Commerzbank in a note, citing a representative from Russian Railways stating that the ports have almost tripled in capacity, to 23.5 million metric tons of grain. Ukraine is attempting to ship more grains via the Danube River, Commerzbank adds. Even so, the flow of grains coming out of the Black Sea region is still much less than this time last year, showing how important the ports that have been damaged this year are to shipping operations. CBOT wheat is down 0.2%, while corn is flat and soybeans rise 0.4%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

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Palm Oil Futures End Lower, Reversing Earlier Gains -- Market Talk

1026 GMT - Palm oil futures closed lower Friday, reversing earlier gains as optimism over a possible Malaysian export duty waiver faced after the anticipated announcement failed to materialize, says David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. He expects cautious trading as investors assess the upcoming MPOB supply-demand report, particularly September inventories and export performance, he adds. Ng expects crude palm oil futures to find support at 4,500 ringgit a ton and face resistance at 4,750 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for December delivery fell 69 ringgit to 4,592 ringgit a ton. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)

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Brent's September Risk Premium Estimated at $22 a Barrel, Goldman Says -- Market Talk

0759 GMT - Brent's risk premium reached an estimated $22 a barrel in September, the second-highest monthly level on record, reflecting persistent fears of disruptions in the Middle East and demand for oil as a portfolio hedge. "The peak monthly risk premium estimate during the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022 did not exceed $16/bbl, highlighting how unprecedented this year's oil supply shock has been," analysts at the bank say. OECD commercial stocks remain a key driver, with a 100 million-barrel decline in inventories raising Brent's fair value by nearly $8 a barrel. Meanwhile, investors often increase oil exposure to hedge against losses in equity and bond portfolios during supply shocks, as higher oil prices fuel inflation concerns and weigh on traditional asset returns, Goldman says. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

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Gold Rises on Softer U.S. Dollar, Lower Oil Prices -- Market Talk

0738 GMT - Gold gains more than 1% as a softer dollar and lower oil prices support the metal, while market participants reassess the inflation and interest-rate outlook. In early European trading, New York gold futures rise 1.4% to $4,216.70 an ounce. The U.S. dollar index slips 0.1% to 102.20, making dollar-denominated commodities less expensive for overseas buyers. According to CME's FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in a 19% chance of a rate hike in October and an 83% probability of an increase in December. Investors will next focus on the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment data due later Friday. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

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Oil Falls After Trump Says No Iran Attacks Before Midterms -- Market Talk

0713 GMT - Oil prices fall after President Trump said the U.S. wouldn't attack Iran before the midterms, citing "productive" talks with Tehran. In early European trading, Brent crude is down 0.8% to $103.48 a barrel, while WTI futures slip 0.7% to $90.86 a barrel. However, investors continue to price in an extended period of supply disruption into next year, as Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia sustain the geopolitical risk premium and shipping in the Gulf remains under threat. Meanwhile, major oil producers have temporarily shut down Gulf of Mexico output ahead of Hurricane Isaias, raising concerns that power outages and flooding could disrupt refinery operations. The risk comes as U.S. refiners are operating above 90% of capacity to help offset war-driven global supply shortages. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

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BP's Deleveraging Efforts Progress as Fundamentals Remains Strong -- Market Talk

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October 09, 2026 11:16 ET (15:16 GMT)