AI Investment Boom to Drive Fastest Global Trade Growth Since Financial Crisis, WTO Forecasts

By Paul Hannon

The AI investment boom is driving an expansion in global goods trade volumes at a pace last seen during the period of rapid globalization that was ended by the global financial crisis, according to new forecasts released Thursday by the World Trade Organization.

However, that expansion is being driven by a small number of economies, with significant parts of the world missing out, while trade in services is set to grow more slowly than previously expected as a result of the war between the U.S. and Iran.

The Geneva-based body raised its growth forecast for the global trade in goods this year to 3.9% from 1.9%, and lifted its projection for next year to 4.1% from 2.6%. Following growth of 4.2% in 2025, if realized, those projections would leave volumes more than 12% higher in 2027 than they were in 2024.

That is a multi-year rate of expansion last seen in the years before the crisis of 2008 and 2009, and testament to the scale of the U.S.-focused investment boom's impact on the global economy.

"Since the financial crisis, it has not been very common to grow like this over a three-year period," said Robert Staiger, the WTO's chief economist. "AI is very trade intensive, and the AI investment boom is bringing us back to a ratio of trade growth to GDP growth that is closer to what we used to have."

Trade flows grew rapidly in the 1990s and most of the first decade of this century as tariffs and other barriers were reduced, containerization lowered transport costs, and improvements in communications technology made it possible to locate factories further away from final customers. In those years of rapid globalization, trade flows often grew at double the rate of economic output. Since the financial crisis, the ratio has been around one-to-one.

The AI boom has proved more durable than the WTO had expected, with its previous forecasts for this year and next based on the assumption that the growth of trade in AI-related goods would slow.

"In fact, it's accelerated," said Staiger. "That's a surprise to us."

In the first six months of 2026, the WTO estimates that AI-related goods accounted for almost half of global trade growth. That heavy reliance on one driver of growth is also reflected in the small number of economies that are seeing trade volumes surge. For 2025, the WTO estimates that the top 10 exporters of AI-enabling goods accounted for 85% of total overseas sales of those products.

Many of those economies are Asian, and the WTO expects exports from the continent to rise by 9% this year and 5.2% next. By contrast, it expects Europe's exports to fall by 0.1% in 2026 before rebounding by 1.8% in 2027.

The Middle East will face the largest decline in exports this year as the war continues to obstruct key shipping routes. The WTO estimates that overseas sales from the region will tumble by 17.2% before rebounding by 23.3% next year, assuming the conflict does not extend through 2027.

However, the global economy has adjusted to the sudden absence of oil and natural gas from one of the world's main sources of supply. The WTO said that while exports of crude oil from the Middle East fell by 24% in the first six months of this year, increases in production by countries outside the region limited the decline in global exports to just 6%.

Similarly, while exports of liquefied natural gas from the Middle East fell by 47%, global shipments declined by just 1% as Malaysia, Norway, Angola and others increased output.

The strong rise in global trade flows is all the more remarkable given that last year saw the largest increase in U.S. tariffs for a century. The WTO said that the global economy's resilience in the face of that and other shocks underlined the value of the rules-based system it oversees, and which is still largely intact.

"Members having stable tariffs allow firms to plan and re-route," said Staiger. "It's a very good illustration of the importance of the system holding."

While trade in goods has flourished despite the war, the WTO lowered its forecast for growth in the trade in services to reflect the disruptions to tourism and transport caused by the conflict. It now expects trade in services to grow by 3.3% in 2026, down from the 4.8% projected in March and the 5.3% recorded in 2025.

"That reflects the fact that services are not as impacted by the AI boom, and they're quite impacted by the Middle East conflict," said Staiger.

In contrast to its weak performance in the trade in goods, Europe has proved the most resilient part of the global economy when it comes to services.

"If the forecast is realized, Europe will account for more than half of world services trade growth in 2026," the WTO said.

Write to Paul Hannon at paul.hannon@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

October 08, 2026 09:14 ET (13:14 GMT)