ICE Canada Weekly Outlook: Canola Still Rangebound Despite Recent Drop

WINNIPEG, Manitoba--Canola futures on the Intercontinental Exchange traded rangebound during the week ended Oct. 7 despite large day-to-day price swings.

November canola traded between C$805 and C$830 per tonne, ending down C$10.40 on the week at C$810.30 per tonne on Oct. 7.

Phil Speiss of RBC Dominion Securities in Winnipeg attributed the downturn to fund selling and a weaker vegetable oil complex, with Chicago soyoil losing more than two United States cents per pound on Oct. 7. But seasonals also played a role in canola's price movement.

"This chase to get the last of the (canola) crop off before winter weather sets in was a secondary impact," Speiss said. "If we're not down primarily on harvest, the rest of the week we could be ... Most of this is spillover from outside markets. The funds bought it (on Oct. 6) and they were blowing it out (on Oct. 7)."

He added that support levels for canola were C$800/tonne for November and C$820 for January. Prices moving below those levels could result in major selloffs.

"In the meantime, most of the spec funds that are following the trend are going to roll over those (net long) positions into January," Speiss said, adding that prices are still high enough for the funds not to pull out of canola.

Recent weather conditions across the Prairies were suitable for growers to catch up on their harvests. The Manitoba canola harvest advanced 21 points during the week at 74 percent completion as of Oct. 6. However, crop quality and yields vary across the region.

The recent weakness showed by canola is not expected to last, Speiss added. Questions regarding yields and crop quality combined with uncertainty in the Black Sea and strong domestic and global demand should support the oilseed for further gains.

"Will China be more aggressive in buying canola? And the biofuel story, it doesn't go away," he said. "We have to get through all this noise first and then use the biofuel play."

Source: Glacier FarmMedia, news@farmmedia.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

October 07, 2026 16:43 ET (20:43 GMT)