EIA Raises Crude Price Estimates as Constraints Persist

By Anthony Harrup

The U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its crude oil price estimates as it sees export restrictions in the Middle East continuing through the fourth quarter, while recent disruptions such as the attack on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline reflect potential for further volatility in flows.

The EIA raised its average fourth-quarter spot price estimate for Brent crude to $105 a barrel from $91 previously, and lifted its forecast for West Texas Intermediate crude to $97 a barrel from $86 a barrel.

"Despite ongoing constraints, we assume that a combination of convoys through the Strait of Hormuz and workarounds to oil exports from the Middle East, including bypass routes and increased use of ship-to-ship transfers, will lead to production and exports from the region generally increasing through the forecast period," the EIA said Tuesday in its latest Short Term Energy Outlook.

The EIA estimated that global oil inventories fell by 1.9 million barrels a day in the third quarter, and will fall by 700,000 barrels a day in the fourth quarter.

Extreme tightness in diesel markets that increases refinery demand for crude oil to make diesel is also a source of upside pressure on prices, according to the agency.

"High tanker rates, which reached record levels in September, reflect increasing insurance costs and are putting additional upward pressure on delivered crude oil prices to refiners," the EIA said.

For 2027, the EIA increased its average Brent price forecast to $84 a barrel from $74 a barrel, and for WTI to $80 a barrel from $70 a barrel.

Write to Anthony Harrup at anthony.harrup@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

October 06, 2026 16:44 ET (20:44 GMT)