Grains Futures Mixed in Steady Trading — Daily Grain Highlights

By Anthony Harrup

--Wheat for December delivery settled up 0.3%, at $7.30 3/4 a bushel, on Wednesday on the Chicago Board of Trade in broadly steady grains trade.

--Soybeans for November delivery rose 0.1%, to $13.20 1/2 a bushel.

--Corn for December delivery fell 0.3%, to $5.34 1/4 a bushel.

Underpriced Risk: SovEcon estimates that combined Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports for the July-September period will be around 8 million metric tons, the lowest since the 2010/11 season. That compares with 16.2 million tons a year ago and a five-year average of 18.2 million tons. "The weak shipments reflect severe disruptions to Black Sea and Azov logistics on both sides," the grains consultancy said in a note.

With no clear path in sight for restoring safe shipping in the Black Sea, "we believe the market is still underpricing the scale of the supply shock," SovEcon added.

North of the Border: Canadian wheat production in 2026 is expected to be down 11% from the previous year, at 36.1 million metric tons, with the harvested area expected to be down 5.6%, at 24.8 million acres, and yields seen down 5.6%, at 53.6 bushels an acre, Statistics Canada said.

"While yields are anticipated to fall compared with their record-high levels one year earlier, they are expected to remain above the five-year average because of overall good growing conditions in Western Canada," the statistics agency added.

Steady Ethanol: U.S. ethanol stocks edged up by 33,000 barrels last week, to 25.22 million barrels, while production held steady at 1.099 million barrels a day, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said. Inventories and output landed within the range of estimates in a Dow Jones survey, which had stocks between 24.5 million barrels and 25.4 million barrels, and production between 1.08 million barrels a day and 1.104 million barrels a day.

INSIGHT

Tricky Beans: The uptrend in soybean futures is still in place, although the market is back to being overbought, Doug Bergman of RCM Alternatives said in a note. Near-term price movement is tricky with a record net long held by funds, President Trump's planned meeting with China's Xi Jinping that could provide market-moving headlines, and supply that will hit the market soon with the U.S. harvest picking up, he said.

"Whether the bean market can trade significantly higher from here will likely depend on South American production prospects, which right now the market is pricing in the smallest increase in production that we've seen in several years," he added.

Down South: Brazil's Conab projects corn production from the three crops of the 2026/27 cycle to total 148 million metric tons, up 2.8% from 2025/26 as planted acreage grows. Aside from rising domestic consumption driven by higher animal feed and ethanol industry use, export demand for Brazilian corn is expected to increase, potentially reaching 46 million tons in the 2026/27 cycle, Conab said. The government agency expects soybean production of 181.6 million tons for 2026/27, a small increase over the previous year.

AHEAD

--The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday.

--The USDA will release its monthly Cattle on Feed report at 3 p.m. ET Friday.

--The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.

--The USDA will release its weekly Grain Export Inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Monday.

--The USDA will release its weekly Crop Progress report at 4 p.m. ET Monday.

Write to Anthony Harrup at anthony.harrup@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

September 16, 2026 16:40 ET (20:40 GMT)