U.S.-Iran Escalation to Delay Oil Flow Recovery Into Next Year, IEA Says — Commodities Roundup

MARKET MOVEMENTS:

--Brent crude oil is down 3.1% to $104.34 a barrel.

--European benchmark gas is down 0.7% to 81.50 euros a megawatt-hour.

--Copper futures are up 0.4% to $14,237 a metric ton.

--Gold futures are up 0.4% to $4,425.60 a troy ounce.

TOP STORY:

U.S.-Iran Escalation to Delay Oil Flow Recovery Into Next Year, IEA Says

A recovery in Middle East oil flows is now expected to stretch into next year as escalating attacks on Gulf shipping and Houthi threats in the Red Sea keep key energy arteries under strain, the International Energy Agency said.

The energy watchdog-a group of Western nations and their allies-further cut its outlook for global oil demand, now expecting consumption to fall by 2.5 million barrels a day in 2026 to 102.4 million barrels a day, compared with its previous forecast for a 1.6-million-barrel-a-day decline.

"Steep losses of petrochemical feedstocks and refined product supplies, along with higher fuel prices, notably for diesel, will continue to weigh on consumption," the agency said in its closely watched monthly report.

OTHER STORIES:

Oil Prices Slip After Recent Surge Amid Supply Risks

Oil prices fell Friday after surging in the previous session, as traders assessed growing risks to Middle East crude exports following fresh territorial gains by Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen.

Front-month Brent crude oil futures fell 3.8% to $103.51 a barrel, while front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures dropped 3.5% to $98.85 a barrel. Both benchmarks settled Thursday at their highest closing levels since May 19, with Brent at $107.63 and WTI at $102.48.

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Orsted Gets Commission Backing in U.K. Tax Case

Orsted said an advisory commission has ruled that two of the Danish wind farm developer's British projects should be primarily taxed in the U.K., backing the company's position in a long-running dispute between Danish and U.K. tax authorities.

Orsted had asked authorities in Denmark and the U.K. to clarify taxation rights between the two countries in 2015, so that its Walney Extension and Hornsea 1 U.K. offshore wind farms wouldn't be double-taxed.

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The Relentless Crypto Billionaire Who Moved to Venezuela in Pursuit of Oil

Cryptocurrency billionaire Fred Ehrsam spent months living in a luxury hotel in Caracas, building a rolodex of connections in a long-shot bid to become one of Venezuela's biggest oil producers.

Without a track record in oil and gas, the 38-year-old co-founder of crypto exchange Coinbase Global has emerged as a surprise contender in President Trump's push to revitalize Venezuela's run-down oil industry. Primavera, the company Ehrsam co-founded earlier this year, signed production-sharing contracts last week with state-run oil giant Petróleos de Venezuela to secure his foothold there.

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BASF Cuts Stake in Harbour Energy With $478 Million Share Sale

German chemicals giant BASF cut its stake in London-listed energy company Harbour Energy after selling around 353.78 million pounds ($478 million) of shares.

In total, BASF sold roughly 133 million shares for 266 pence each, bookrunner Morgan Stanley said Friday. Some 80 million ordinary shares were sold via a placing to institutional investors while Harbour bought 53 million. The offering was first announced late Thursday.

MARKET TALKS:

Gold Rebounds With Focus on Oil Prices and U.S. Inflation Figures -- Market Talk

1306 GMT - Gold prices rebounded after oil prices fell more than 2.5%, easing some inflationary concerns. Futures in New York rise 0.3% to $4,422.40 a troy ounce, but remain on track for a weekly loss. U.S. consumer prices accelerated in August, bolstering market expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates next week. According to the FedWatch tool, traders are now pricing in a nearly 87% probability that the U.S. central bank will raise interest rates next week, from around 67% earlier on Friday. Still, "while the markets appear to be placing their proverbial bets on a hike, it's likely that members of the FOMC won't be quite as unequivocal," says Kyle Rodda from Capital.com. "The doves on the committee, of which there are many, are likely to argue the case that the dip in annual core inflation justifies patience." (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

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$110 a Barrel Might Not Prove a Firm Ceiling for Brent -- Market Talk

1241 GMT - Brent crude could push through $110 a barrel, but that level might not prove a firm ceiling if traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains depressed and shipping through the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb is disrupted by the Houthis, says Abhishek Kumar from Sparta Commodities. "Houthi control of Yemen's Mokha port has raised concerns around Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb traffic, while attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure add another potential pressure point," the senior oil analyst says. "The market is increasingly pricing simultaneous risk across both major Middle Eastern shipping corridors." Diplomatic progress could ease the front-end premium, but recent experience suggests diplomacy alone is unlikely to materially shift the market without a sustained improvement in shipping flows and security, according to Kumar. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

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Europe Gas Prices Seen Higher as Hormuz Disruption Squeezes LNG Supplies, Commerzbank Says -- Market Talk

1239 GMT - European gas prices are expected to remain elevated, with the TTF benchmark forecast at 75 euros a megawatt-hour by year-end, up sharply from Commerzbank's previous forecast of 50 euros. A physical shortage is unlikely, but competition for LNG is expected to remain intense, particularly as Qatar, has sharply curtailed production and shipments, according to Norman Liebke, a commodity analyst at Commerzbank. Most remaining Qatari LNG cargoes are headed to China, India and countries around the Persian Gulf, while shipments to Europe have effectively halted. Unlike oil, LNG has limited alternative export routes, increasing Europe's vulnerability. The supply outlook could tighten further from 2027 as the European Union phases out Russian LNG and pipeline-gas imports, Liebke says. TTF gas currently trades around 81 euros a megawatt-hour. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

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Diesel Hits Fresh Record High as Physical Market Looks Increasingly Strained -- Market Talk

1201 GMT - U.S. diesel prices extend their rally, hitting a fresh record high as severe disruptions in the Middle East and Russia keep global supplies tight ahead of winter. The national average price of diesel hit $6.0556 a gallon on Friday, the highest on record, according to the American Automobile Association. A year ago, prices averaged $3.705 a gallon. "The recent widening in the spread between the spot price of Brent crude and the front-month contract is evidence of rising strains in the physical oil market," says David Oxley from Capital Economics. "The recent upward leg in the oil price does not have the hallmarks of a risk premium-related move that could dissipate quickly but seems instead to be a reassessment that will only be soothed by a loosening in oil market conditions." (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

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Oil Extends Losses But Remains on Track for Significant Weekly Gain -- Market Talk

1148 GMT - Oil prices extend losses in afternoon European trading, but remain on track for weekly gains of nearly 9% as escalating attacks in the Middle East fuel fears of prolonged supply disruptions. "The key risk in the near term is that fighting causes the partial recovery in crude oil flows to go into reverse," says David Oxley from Capital Economics. "This could include affecting oil flows via the Red Sea, and/or disrupting the practice of ship-to-ship transfers, which have both been vital in allowing around 60%-80% of prewar crude oil flows to exit the Strait [of Hormuz] in recent months." Brent crude is down 3.1% to $104.33 a barrel, while WTI futures fall 2.8% to $99.63 a barrel following a Financial Times report of Middle Eastern diplomatic efforts to secure temporary shipping arrangements with Iran.(giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

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Norsk Hydro Earnings Face Downside Risk From Natural Gas, Cost Uncertainty -- Market Talk

0912 GMT - Norsk Hydro's fourth-quarter Ebitda faces risks from disrupted natural-gas supply and cost uncertainty, J.P. Morgan analysts write. The Iran-U.S. conflict continues to impact the aluminum industry, after Norsk Hydro announced in August that disruptions to natural-gas supply at its Alunorte alumina refinery led to a temporary curtailment. That led management to implement contingency measures including purchasing natural-gas volumes at spot prices. While the impact on third-quarter earnings is material on its own, the bank remains concerned regarding the potential impact if Norsk Hydro needs to secure additional spot liquefied natural gas volumes into the fourth quarter. The bank downgrades Norsk Hydro stock to neutral from overweight and lowers its price target to 97 Norwegian kroner from 116 kroner. Shares fall 2% to 89.14 kroner. (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)

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Copper Trims Gains After Surging to Record High This Week -- Market Talk

0805 GMT - Copper prices trim gains after surging this week to their highest level on record, with three-month futures on the LME now up 0.3% to $14,233 a metric ton. It had surged above $14,800 a ton in the previous session. "Given how important the tariff narrative has become in supporting recent copper strength, the possibility that these measures may not be imposed triggered a sharp unwind in stretched positioning," analysts at Sucden Financial say. Still, the underlying fundamentals remain supportive, with tight supplies likely to limit the scope for a deeper selloff. "We expect subsequent weakness to be less pronounced in both speed and scale, with dip-buyers and attempts to establish a new technical floor likely to leave price action choppier and less directional tomorrow." (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

September 11, 2026 09:36 ET (13:36 GMT)