Wheat Futures Rise Ahead of WASDE — Daily Grain Highlights

By Kirk Maltais

--Wheat for December delivery rose 1.8% to $7.41 1/2 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade Thursday, with traders curbing the selling spree that has dominated most of the week before the USDA's next WASDE report is released.

--Soybeans for November delivery rose 1.7% to $13.31 3/4 a bushel.

--Corn for December delivery rose 1.1% to $5.33 1/2 a bushel.

HIGHLIGHTS

Calm Before the Storm: CBOT grain futures climbed ahead of Friday's WASDE. With the report expected to provide updates on expected output for this year's spring crops, traders are girding themselves for what may be fitful action on the CBOT. "It's only 24 hours away from the crop report, which will undoubtedly give some quick volatility," said Joe Davis of Futures International. "Ranges for yields [are] still as wide as the Grand Canyon."

Setting the Stage: Above-average temperatures are moving out of the U.S. Corn Belt, according to the latest forecast from the NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. The updated 6-10 day forecast shows northern Plains states seeing near-normal temperatures, while above-average temperatures move south. States like North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota are now seeing cooler temperatures, this while receiving more precipitation than normal. However, in its 8-14 day forecast, that heat appears to slowly return to those northern states. What the weather does remains important, as harvest-time begins.

INSIGHT

Full Force: The El Niño system that's in place is getting stronger, enough so that the NOAA's Climate Prediction Center now views there to be a "greater than 90% chance of a very strong event" in the Northern Hemisphere this fall into this winter. The Climate Prediction Center classifies an event as 'very strong' if the average sea surface temperature deviates more than 3 degrees Celsius higher. An El Niño climate system tends to create mild winters for the northern U.S., while the southern U.S. gets hit with hurricanes potentially exacerbated by the warmer waters.

Devouring Margins: Surging fuel prices from wars overseas threaten to evaporate any benefit from higher crop prices, which is why the outlook for farmer incomes doesn't look great even with the big boost in futures. According to AAA, current retail diesel prices set a new high, at $5.9773 a gallon. For farmers, this means harvesting may prove to be an even-steeper expense than anticipated. Last week, the USDA forecast 2026 net farm income at $158.4 billion--up from its previous forecast of $153.4 billion.

Another Round: The USDA has announced another round of flash sales of U.S. grain exports. The agency says that 272,000 metric tons of soybeans have been sold to China for delivery in the 2026/27 marketing year, while an additional 206,500 tons of soybeans were reported as being "received" by the USDA for delivery to unknown destinations, also for 2026/27. It's the second flash sale to China reported in the shortened holiday week, with the first being 340,000 tons of soybeans sold on Tuesday.

AHEAD

--The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday.

--The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.

--The USDA will release its weekly Grain Export Inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Monday.

--The USDA will release its weekly Crop Progress report at 4 p.m. ET Monday.

Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

September 10, 2026 15:19 ET (19:19 GMT)