Week Ahead for FX, Bonds: U.S. Jobs Data in -2-

Readings are due for export powerhouses Taiwan, Japan and South Korea, as well as India and several Southeast Asian economies on Tuesday.

Flash August PMIs showed manufacturers in some Asian economies, including Australia and India, grappling with rising costs, while demand for goods remained strong as new orders picked up and business confidence improved.

South Korea

South Korea is set to release August trade and inflation data on Tuesday and Wednesday, likely highlighting the economy's uneven growth, with technology industries booming while non-tech sectors lag, alongside persistent inflation.

Exports likely grew 60.5% from a year earlier in August, following a revised 63.0% gain in July, iM Securities estimates. Imports are projected to have risen 27.3%, resulting in a $27.5 billion trade surplus.

Growth is expected to remain driven by robust information-technology shipments, including semiconductors, iM Securities' Park Sang-hyun said. Automobile exports, however, are projected to stay sluggish amid labor strikes in the sector.

CPI data is expected to show that headline inflation accelerated above 3% again in August, said Citigroup's Jin-Wook Kim.

Another strong print could stoke expectations that the Bank of Korea will turn more hawkish. The central bank raised its base rate in August for a second straight meeting, seeking to contain inflationary pressure as the Middle East conflict and AI spillovers continue to pose risks to price growth.

Malaysia

Bank Negara Malaysia makes its interest-rate decision on Thursday afternoon. The central bank is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 2.75%, feeling limited urgency to move as growth stays stable and inflation contained, CGS International economist Mas Aida Che Mansor said.

Domestic demand should remain supported by a strong labor market, steady wage growth and government measures, while robust electronics exports and a recovery in other exports should underpin growth.

Inflation is expected to remain in check despite higher commodity prices, reducing the need for tighter policy, she added.

India

India is scheduled to release GDP data for the April-June period on Monday.

ANZ Research said the figures will likely show another strong quarter of growth printing above 7.0%, underscoring economic resilience despite multiple risks.

High-frequency indicators point to a pickup in household consumption and private-sector spending, though the rebound appears uneven, ANZ said. Consumption remains concentrated in passenger vehicle sales rather than extending broadly to everyday goods.

India's economic growth may surprise to the upside for now, Nomura research analysts said. But lower profit margins, the agricultural impact of monsoons and a possible consolidation in public spending could eventually moderate GDP growth, they added.

Indonesia

Indonesia is scheduled to release July trade and August inflation data on Tuesday.

August CPI could edge higher to 3.2% from 2.88% in July, driven by higher food prices and less favorable base effects, ANZ's Dhiraj Nim said.

However, inflation is expected to remain within Bank Indonesia's 1.5%-3.5% target range, and the broader inflation outlook should remain benign, he added.

Indonesian exports are expected to remain under pressure in the second half, with monthly trade deficits likely to persist as imports continue to outpace outbound shipments, RHB economist Wong Xian Yong said.

He expects domestic policies to play a larger role in shaping export performance for the rest of the year.

Philippines

The Philippines is due to release inflation data for August on Friday. Price pressures have declined moderately recently, but inflation remains above the central bank's target range.

The headline figure is likely to have moderated to 6.0% in August from 6.2% in July, said ANZ Research's Kausani Basak. Transport inflation likely eased during the month but could remain elevated on an annual basis, she noted.

The central bank expects August inflation to settle within the 5.5% to 6.5% range.

Any references to days are in local times.

Write to Jessica Fleetham at jessica.fleetham@wsj.com and Jihye Lee at jihye.lee@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

August 31, 2026 03:14 ET (07:14 GMT)