EMEA Morning Briefing: Stock Futures Higher Ahead of Warsh's Jackson Hole Speech

MARKET WRAPS

Watch For:

Eurozone business & consumer surveys; France household consumption expenditure in manufactured goods, provisional CPI; Germany labor market statistics; no major trading updates expected

Opening Call:

European stock futures were higher after Asia stocks rose. The yield on U.S. Treasurys edged up, the dollar weakened. Gold and oil both fell.

Equities:

European equity futures rose ahead of Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's scheduled speech at the central bank's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo.

Warsh, who became Fed chairman in May, has intentionally refrained from providing guidance about the U.S. central bank's plans to ensure price stability.

"Markets will closely scrutinize his comments for signals on whether the Fed is prepared to raise rates" at the Federal Open Market Committee's September meeting, said UOB Global Economics & Markets Research.

"Futures markets [are] currently pricing only a 35% probability of a hike," UOB added.

Forex:

The U.S. dollar weakened. "Uncertainty over the Fed's reaction function and concerns that policymakers may be placing less emphasis on inflation control have increased market focus" on Warsh's comments, said OCBC Group Research.

"The USD could find support if Warsh and other Fed officials push back against currency debasement concerns and reaffirm their commitment to returning inflation to the 2% target," the strategists added.

Bonds:

The yield on U.S. Treasurys were higher.

Investors are expected to watch for clues about his plans to tame inflation and how the Treasury's bonds buyback program could impact long-term yields.

"Markets are on edge for any signal [from Warsh] on the rate path, with bond yields already rising in anticipation of a potentially hawkish tone," Commerzbank Research analysts said.

Energy:

Oil prices fell on fading hopes for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

The Trump administration has told mediators it has no interest in returning to the terms of a preliminary deal it reached with Iran, which later fell apart.

"This comes after Iran and Oman reached an agreement on revenue sharing on Hormuz earlier this week, raising hopes that the waterway would reopen to vessels shipping oil," said ANZ Research.

Prospects of an agreement on reopening the strait have faded, they added.

Metals:

Gold prices were lower, as investors hope for clues on the trajectory of interest rates as inflation stays sticky.

A balanced tone at from Warsh at the Jackson Hole conference could support gold, said Kudo.com's Konstantinos Chrysikos, while hawkish remarks could lift bond yields and pressure the precious metal.

"Markets will also watch any shifts in geopolitical developments in the Middle East and their impact on oil prices and inflation expectations," he added.

Iron ore prices rose amid improving sentiment and persistently high shipping rates.

However, iron ore demand remained relatively weak while supply stays at an elevated level, Baocheng Futures said.

Although iron ore prices rebounded after recent falls, China Galaxy Futures still holds a relatively bearish view given China's sluggish steel demand in both the construction and manufacturing sectors.

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Write to singaporeeditors@dowjones.com

Expected Major Events for Friday 04:30/NED: Aug Producer confidence survey

04:30/NED: Jul PPI

05:00/FIN: 2Q GDP

06:00/SWE: Aug Consumer Tendency Survey

06:00/SWE: Aug Monthly Business Tendency Survey

06:00/NOR: Jul Retail Sales

06:00/SWE: Jul Retail sales

06:00/SWE: 2Q GDP

06:30/HUN: Jul Employment & unemployment

06:30/HUN: Jul Trade Balance

06:45/FRA: Jul Housing starts

06:45/FRA: Jul Household consumption expenditure in manufactured goods

06:45/FRA: 2Q GDP - detailed figures

06:45/FRA: Aug Provisional CPI

07:00/SVK: Aug Economic sentiment indicator

07:00/SVK: Aug Business tendency survey

07:00/TUR: Jul Foreign Trade

07:00/SPN: Aug Flash Estimate CPI

07:00/SPN: Jul Retail Sales

07:00/CZE: 2Q GDP

07:00/SWI: Aug KOF economic barometer

07:55/GER: Aug Labour market statistics (incl unemployment)

08:00/ITA: Jun Industrial turnover

08:00/BUL: Jul PPI

09:00/MLT: Jul Registered Unemployed

09:00/CYP: Jun Industrial Production Index

09:00/EU: Aug Business & Consumer Surveys - Business Climate Indicator & Economic Sentiment Indicator

09:00/ITA: Aug Consumer Confidence Survey

09:00/ITA: Aug Business Confidence Survey

09:00/GRE: Jul PPI

09:00/CRO: Jul Retail trade

09:30/BEL: Aug CPI

10:00/FRA: 2Q OECD trade statistics release

10:00/IRL: Jul Retail Sales Index

10:00/POR: Jul Retail trade

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August 28, 2026 00:17 ET (04:17 GMT)

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