Corn Extends Gains on Low Expected Crop Yield — Daily Grain Highlights

By Anthony Harrup

--Corn for December delivery rose 1.6%, to $5.23 1/2 a bushel, on the Chicago Board of Trade on Tuesday, extending a rally on expectations of a lower crop yield.

--Soybeans for November delivery settled up 1.1%, at $12.37 3/4 a bushel.

--Wheat for December delivery rose 0.5%, to $7.03 1/4 a bushel.

HIGHLIGHTS

On the Up and Up: Corn futures extended gains to five sessions with the market focused on lower yields following the Pro Farmer Crop Tour. "The trade is showing much more concern over this one after the USDA cut its yield estimate this month and the Pro Farmer Crop Tour unearthed further concerns and published a bullish yield estimate past that," StoneX senior grains analyst Matt Zeller said in a note. On Monday, the USDA reported the corn crop condition at 57% good or excellent, down from 60% the week before and 71% a year earlier.

Flash Sales: Private exporters reported sales of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2026/27 marketing year, the USDA said. Soybean sales to unknown destinations are often thought to be bound for China. China is expected to keep securing U.S. soybeans with purchases by the end of this week adding up to 11.5 million tons-12 million tons, AgResource said in a note. "The trade will be on alert for China to make goodwill purchases of soybeans and potentially U.S. grain ahead of the Sept. 24 Trump/Xi summit in the U.S.," the firm added.

INSIGHT

Biofuel Worries: The American Soybean Association said greater small refinery exemptions for compliance with the 2025 Renewable Fuel Standard could deliver long-term damage to soybean farmers. Reports that exemptions could far exceed previous government projections would deliver "a major blow to domestic biofuel demand when U.S. soybean farmers can least afford it," the ASA said. The association sees 500 million gallons of biomass-based diesel demand at risk, with potential revenue loss to soybean farmers of about $1 billion.

Shopping for Wheat: Black Sea grain export disruptions due to the Russia-Ukraine war continue supporting prices, especially wheat, and are pushing importers to other sources of supply, analysts at Rabobank said in a report. If Black Sea capacity remains impaired, more business could move to Australia, the EU, Argentina, Canada, and the U.S. "That shift would support export premiums and global wheat futures, depending on crop availability, freight spreads, and the pace at which Russia and Ukraine restore dependable shipment programs," they said.

Ethanol Views: Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones expect ethanol production for last week to land between 1.075 million barrels a day and 1.105 million b/d, compared with 1.089 million b/d the previous week. Forecasts for ethanol stocks range from 24.8 million barrels to 25.5 million barrels, versus the previous week's 25.1 million barrels.

AHEAD

--The EIA will release its Weekly Petroleum Status Update report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.

--The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday.

--The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.

Write to Anthony Harrup at anthony.harrup@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

August 25, 2026 15:03 ET (19:03 GMT)