AGS WEEK AHEAD: All Eyes on U.S. Inflation in Major Week for Cocoa

By Joe Stonor

A roundup of key agricultural commodity markets for the week of July 13-17 by Dow Jones Newswires in Barcelona.

GRAINS & OILSEEDS:

Investors across the agricultural commodities sector will watch for U.S. consumer price inflation data set to be released Tuesday, and listen to Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh speak before Congress following the print. Ags are sensitive to rate hikes, with higher interest rates typically weighing on the sector.

Higher oil prices in response to escalation between the U.S. and Iran could further lift grains and sugar, as farmers divert crops toward production of biofuels. President Trump said the U.S. is reimposing a blockade on Iranian oil, raising global prices.

Hotter and drier weather has supported prices across agricultural commodities. Speculative traders bought into grains last week in response to weather concerns, analysts at Peak Trading Research said.

Corn prices have been helped by a positive demand outlook and deteriorating crop conditions in Europe, Rabobank analysts wrote in a client note.

Wheat futures edged 0.3% lower in Chicago to $6.39 a bushel in European afternoon trade Monday, while corn futures rose 1.1% to $4.66 a bushel. Soybean futures were up 0.65% at $11.99 a bushel.

SOFT COMMODITIES:

Cocoa and coffee both endured volatile trading weeks last week, as concern around El Nino and technical dynamics resulted in atypically rocky trade.

A very strong El Nino at some point in 2026 is looking increasingly likely, analysts at financial services group Marex said, with the weather system prompting fears around supply outlooks for a host of soft commodities.

Trade in both cocoa and coffee mellowed Monday. Cocoa futures slipped 0.3% to $5,822 a metric ton, while coffee edged 0.2% lower to $3.29 a pound.

The week ahead is a crucial one for cocoa. Quarterly grinding data--a key measure of demand--will be released for Europe, Asia and North America on Thursday, likely driving further volatility, analysts at HCCO wrote.

Meanwhile, coffee traders will watch Brazilian forecasts closely. Heavy rains elevated investor concern around harvests, Rabobank analysts wrote.

Sugar prices slipped 1.2% to 14.70 cents a pound. The commodity typically comes under pressure in July, Peak Trading analysts said.

Write to Joe Stonor at josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 13, 2026 13:11 ET (17:11 GMT)