Week Ahead for FX, Bonds: Fed Minutes in Focus -2-

A decision to raise interest rates would be contentious, given the overall fragile state of the economy and the fact that falling oil prices are easing pressure on the inflation outlook.

RBNZ Governor Anna Breman appears keen to flex her hawkish muscles though, with a message centered on elevated inflation, the need to maintain bank credibility and to drive prices lower.

Her comments on the longer-term horizon will be the main talking point. Breman might want to keep the door open to further hikes to show she's serious about getting inflation back on target.

Southeast Asia CPIs

The Philippines and Thailand are scheduled to release inflation data for June during the week. Inflation is likely to have cooled, but remained elevated in both countries as energy prices declined.

Fuel prices in Thailand have eased, although they remain well-above pre-conflict levels and higher than a year earlier, ANZ Research's Kausani Basak said.

In the Philippines, headline inflation likely cooled slightly to 6.7% in June, down from May's 6.8% increase, ANZ added.

Global crude oil prices have declined by over 20% in June compared to the end of May, which has helped to alleviate pressure on domestic fuel prices, ANZ said.

Malaysia

Bank Negara Malaysia is widely expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 2.75% on Thursday, as inflation remains manageable.

The government's fuel subsidy program has shielded the economy from higher global energy prices, while a recent reduction in the price of subsidized diesel should provide further relief, Goldman Sachs analysts said.

ANZ's Tan said that a combination of resilient economic growth and gradually firmer inflation should give the central bank room to raise its policy rate later this year. ANZ's base case remains for a 25 basis-point rate hike in the second half.

Taiwan

On Tuesday, eyes will be on Taiwan's June consumer price data, which likely stayed elevated after inflation rose above the key 2% threshold for the first time in a year in May.

ANZ and Barclays economists expect to see last month's inflation at 2.13% and 2.4%, respectively. While oil prices dropped after the U.S. and Iran reached an initial peace agreement, a low base from last year is probably keeping inflation high.

The next few months' prints will be critical as Taiwan's central bank has tilted a little hawkish, even though it kept interest rates steady again in June. ANZ has penciled in a rate hike in September.

Taiwan is also due to release June merchandise trade data on Thursday.

The island likely maintained robust exports momentum due to the world's insatiable demand for AI tech hardware. Bank of America analysts said that price upswings and further volume growth amid the global AI infrastructure buildout should continue to support the island's tech exports.

Any references to days are in local times.

- Write to Jessica Fleetham at jessica.fleetham@wsj.com and Fabiana Negrin Ochoa at fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 05, 2026 20:14 ET (00:14 GMT)