Analysts See Weekly Decline in U.S. Crude Oil Stockpiles

By Anthony Harrup

U.S. crude oil inventories likely fell last week, extending their decline to 10 weeks with export demand still buoyant and refineries running near full capacity, according to a survey by The Wall Street Journal.

Commercial crude stocks are seen falling by 3.1 million barrels, to 409 million barrels, in the week ended June 26, according to the average estimate of nine analysts and traders. Seven analysts expect a drop and two predict a build, with estimates ranging from a 7.9 million barrel draw to a 1 million barrel increase.

Gasoline inventories are seen falling by 700,000 barrels, to 215.6 million barrels, with forecasts ranging from a 1.8 million barrel increase to a 3.5 million barrel decline.

Stocks of distillate fuel, mostly diesel, are expected to have slipped by 100,000 barrels, to 106 million barrels. Estimates range from a drop of 3 million barrels to a build of 2.6 million barrels.

Refinery capacity use likely slipped by 0.3 of a percentage point, to 95.8%, with forecasts ranging from a 1 percentage point decline to a 0.6 percentage point rise. Two analysts didn't forecast refinery runs.

The inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration is scheduled for release at 10:30 a.m. EDT on Wednesday.

 
                                    Crude    Gasoline  Distillates Refinery Use 
   Again Capital                    -6.4       -1.7       -2.3        0.6 
   Confluence Investment Management  1.0        0.5        1.0       -0.5 
   Rystad Energy                    -2.3       -0.9       -0.7       -1.0 
   Excel Futures                    -7.9       -1.7        1.1       -0.2 
   Spartan Capital Securities       -1.1       -3.1        2.6        n/f 
   Mizuho                            1.0        1.0        1.0       -0.4 
   Price Futures Group              -3.0       -3.5       -3.0       -0.8 
   Ritterbusch and Associates       -5.1        1.8       -1.0        0.4 
   Tradition Energy                 -4.3        1.0        0.4        n/f 
 
   AVERAGE                          -3.1       -0.7       -0.1       -0.3 
 

Note: Numbers in millions of barrels, with the exception of refinery use, which is in percentage points.

n/f = no forecast

unch = unchanged

Write to Anthony Harrup at anthony.harrup@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

June 30, 2026 13:03 ET (17:03 GMT)