North American Morning Briefing: Stocks Set to End Quarter on a High

OPENING CALL

Stock futures were tilting higher Tuesday as markets looked to close out the first half of the year on a positive note.

The Dow was poised to build on the record high posted in the previous session as investors globally returned to risk.

Peace talks in the Middle East following weekend clashes have brought down oil prices, easing fears of inflation and supporting equities.

"While stock market enthusiasm has increased, we do not believe it has crossed the threshold into outright irrational exuberance," LPL Financial said.

Traders are watching the yen closely after the Japanese currency fell to a 40-year low against the dollar , raising traders' expectations of a government intervention.

"There is simply no reason for the yen to be as weak as it is, which keeps the possibility of intervention firmly on the table , " Moody's Analytics said.

DeVere Group warned of the potential for disruption in the Treasury market .

"Everyone's focused on whether Tokyo will intervene in the currency market. The more important question is how Japan pays for that intervention."

Stocks to Watch

Abivax released new data reassuring investors about the safety of its experimental ulcerative colitis treatment. Shares soared.

A.P. Moller-Maersk

raised its full-year guidance, citing strong demand in the container market and an increase in spot market rates. Shares ticked up.

Strategy

fell more than 3% ahead of the bell, on pace to erase some of their 13% jump yesterday. Strategy earlier abandoned its "never sell bitcoin" mantra in a bid to shore up confidence in the company.

Super Micro Computer, Applied Materials, Sandisk and other companies tied to the AI buildout advanced premarket as investors pile back into tech shares.

Watch For:

U.S. S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Prices Index for April; U.S. Chicago Business Barometer - ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI for June; U.S. Conference Board - Consumer Confidence for June; Canada GDP for April; earnings from Nike, Constellation Brands

Today's Top Headlines/Must Reads:

- Comcast's Breakup Is Overdue. It Shouldn't Rush Into a New Marriage.

- America Needs More Weapons. JPMorgan Wants to Add Its Firepower.

- Why Wall Street Bulls Aren't Worried About Sky-High Stock Prices

MARKET WRAPS

Forex:

The dollar rose slightly as the Supreme Court's decision Monday to block Trump's bid to fire Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook reduced risks to the central bank's independence .

Franklin Templeton Institute said the yen's slide looked like a blunt verdict on Japan's policy mix .

UOB Global Economics & Markets Research said the dollar could extend gains versus the yen

if it held above the 21-day exponential moving average.

Bonds:

Treasury yields edged lower , moving in the same direction as oil prices, even as markets were increasingly focusing on factors other than geopolitical tensions.

Amundi Investment Institute maintains a neutral view on Treasury duration

for now. "Robust U.S. labor data and high inflation are putting upward pressure on U.S. rates and confirm a neutral stance in U.S. duration."

Deutsche Bank raised its year-end forecast for the two- and 10-year Treasury yields , to 4.30% and 4.80% respectively.

Energy:

Oil prices fell as investors weighed the prospect of a U.S.-Iran summit in Qatar after days of back-and-forth fighting around the Strait of Hormuz.

In early European trading, Brent crude fell 1% to $73.20 a barrel, while WTI futures were down 1.2% to $69.91 a barrel.

ING said underlying pressures in the oil market remained .

"We believe the market has overshot to the downside. Our assumption is that flows will only get close to prewar levels towards the end of the third quarter, while current price levels imply a return to normal by the end of July."

Metals:

Gold futures rose in early European trading. Prices are on track for a monthly loss of 12% despite persistent geopolitical uncertainties, as traders expect the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates this year.

" Gold is likely to remain under pressure

in the near term as easing energy prices, a resilient U.S. dollar, and higher for longer interest rate expectations continue to reduce demand for non-yielding safe haven assets," MUFG said.

OCBC Group Research cut its gold forecast

amid a more challenging near-term macro backdrop.

   TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES 

Investors Just Don't See a Case for Nike. Earnings May Not Change That.

World Cup fever is in full swing, but that heat hasn't carried over to Nike's beleaguered stock. Expectations are low for both athleticwear and shoe maker's coming fiscal fourth-quarter results, due Tuesday afternoon.

Consensus calls for Nike to earn 12 cents a share on revenue of $10.85 billion; both mark a decline from the year-ago period.

Constellation Earnings Will Test Whether Beer Is Back

As alcohol giant Constellation Brands prepares to report results for the quarter ended in May, investors want to know whether its beer business has regained momentum.

The maker of Modelo Especial and Corona is scheduled to report fiscal first-quarter results after the market closes on Tuesday. Wall Street analysts polled by FactSet expect sales to fall 5% from a year ago to $2.39 billion, while earnings are expected to come in at $3.19 a share, down about 1% from a year earlier.

Warren Buffett Skips Midyear Donation to Gates Foundation as He Awaits Epstein Review

For the first time in two decades, Warren Buffett is skipping his usual midyear donation to the Gates Foundation so the famed investor can wait to see the findings of a review into the foundation's ties to Jeffrey Epstein, according to people familiar with Buffett's plans.

Buffett, 95 years old, is delaying his decision until later in the year, possibly until when he puts out his Thanksgiving letter, the people said. The Berkshire Hathaway chairman has typically donated billions worth of Berkshire shares each June or early July, part of a "lifetime" pledge he made when he forged closer ties with the Gates Foundation.

Newest Bank of Japan Policymaker Pledges to Keep Careful Eye on Yen

TOKYO-The newest member of the Bank of Japan's policy board pledged to carefully watch the impact of a weak yen on prices, though she didn't give any clear hints on her monetary policy stance.

"There is some evidence emerging that suggests currency fluctuations are having a larger impact on prices than before," Ayano Sato said Tuesday at her first news conference as a BOJ policymaker.

Shell Warns Global LNG Supply Could Contract if Strait of Hormuz Disruption Continues

Global supply of liquefied natural gas could contract this year if disruption in the Strait of Hormuz continues for a prolonged period, according to British energy major Shell.

Shell said Tuesday in its annual LNG report that global physical LNG cargos sold this year could be similar to the 422 million metric tons sold in 2025. It then expects a return to growth in 2027.

Supreme Court Blocks Trump From Firing Fed Governor Lisa Cook

WASHINGTON-The Supreme Court on Monday rejected President Trump's bid to fire Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook without meaningful legal scrutiny, reaffirming the central bank's longstanding insulation from presidential control.

But in a second decision, the court gave Trump free rein to fire officials at other independent agencies for any reason, a major expansion of presidential power over the vast regulatory apparatus that sits over the U.S. economy.

China's Manufacturing Activity Expands, Buoyed by Exports

China's manufacturing activity expanded in June after remaining flat last month, thanks in part to resilient exports amid robust global demand for artificial-intelligence and green products.

The official manufacturing purchasing managers index edged up to 50.3 this month from May's 50.0, according to data released Tuesday by the National Bureau of Statistics. June's headline reading topped the 50.1 forecast by a Wall Street Journal survey of economists. The 50-point mark separates expansion from contraction.

U.S. Quake-Relief Efforts Collide With Anger at Venezuela's Government

CARACAS, Venezuela-With time running out, firefighters and paramedics from Virginia equipped with concrete-cutting saws, acoustic devices and precision-locating equipment gingerly pulled out a father and son trapped for four days.

Laid out on makeshift stretchers, they were carried to a nearby ambulance. Residents who have seen little but death since twin earthquakes hit last Wednesday broke out in applause and shouted, "Gracias! Gracias!"

Corruption Scandals Threaten Milei's Free-Market Makeover of Argentina

BUENOS AIRES-When Javier Milei swept to power vowing to dismantle the political "caste" that he blamed for decades of corruption and economic decline, he promised voters something new: an honest government.

But the resignation over the weekend of Cabinet Chief Manuel Adorni, one of Milei's closest advisers, following months of other scandals involving the president and his inner circle, has raised questions about whether his government is really any different.

Trump Nominates Acting Labor Secretary to Lead Department

President Trump said Monday that he would nominate Keith Sonderling as labor secretary.

Sonderling has served as acting head of the department since Trump's first labor secretary, Lori Chavez-DeRemer, resigned in April after a tumultuous tenure at the agency. He will need Senate confirmation for the permanent role.

Write to gareth.mcpherson@wsj.com

TODAY IN CANADA

Earnings:

Nothing major scheduled

Economic Indicators (ET):

0830 GDP for April

0830 Principal field crop areas for June

Stocks to Watch:

(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

June 30, 2026 06:17 ET (10:17 GMT)