Wheat Futures Higher After White House Confirms China Deal — Daily Grain Highlights

By Kirk Maltais

--Wheat for September delivery rose 4.4% to $6.78 1/4 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade Monday, with the entire complex rising in reaction to the White House announcement of China buying $17 billion more in U.S. ag exports.

--Corn for September delivery rose 4.2% to $4.82 1/2 a bushel.

--Soybeans for August delivery rose 2.9% to $12.10 a bushel.

HIGHLIGHTS

Devil in the Details: U.S. agriculture celebrated the announcement of China buying $17 billion-worth of U.S. agricultural goods through 2028, sending grain futures soaring. But underpinning that gain is the sentiment from some analysts that questions how beneficial such a deal will be to U.S. grains. "Traders debate whether China's proposed purchases would create truly new demand for U.S. agriculture or simply redirect global trade flows," said Jim Wiesemeyer of Ag Bull Trading in a note. He adds that this redirection could be beneficial in that China may now buy less from Brazil and Argentina.

Storm Surge: Heavy storm activity hit U.S. growing areas, also boosting grain futures. A daily weather report from the USDA said severe thunderstorms have produced both tornadoes and flash flooding in the Corn Belt, while storms in the Plains resulted in wind and hail damage in Kansas and South Dakota. Monday's Crop Progress report will provide fresh data on crop conditions nationwide.

Trade Balance: The latest Commitments of Traders report showed a reduction in long positions in corn and soybeans, while more short contracts were added to wheat positions. This eased concerns of a potential price plunge tied to overleveraged traders - especially as futures surged Monday in reaction to the White House's announcement. "Markets love details and now some details have emerged," said Brian Grete of Commstock Investments. But Grete cautions that there is "a lot of balls in their air that must be juggled."

INSIGHT

Waiting for the Shoe to Drop: The showdown with the U.S. and Iran on the Strait of Hormuz continues to be felt in commodities. As a result, traders are pricing what a lingering war will mean for oil prices - and how markets like agriculture will be impacted. "The markets are starting to deal with some longer-term realities, such that the real impact of the rising energy deficits will likely start being felt in June and July, and the longer-term realities of the fertilizer story will likely be felt with the global 2027 crops," said Arlan Suderman of StoneX in a note.

Running Low: Demand for commodities across the board is coming from a returning focus on the "scarcity premium" -- the potential that the world is short on some materials it needs to keep running. "Investors are positioning for a world where physical assets matter again: power, grids, data centres, defence, reshoring and electrification all need more energy and materials," said analysts with eToro in a note. But behind this is the industrial health of China -- in that any sign of flagging activity in the country's industrial segment could reverse the scarcity sentiment.

Shipment Slip: Export inspections of U.S. wheat fell from last week and where they were at this time last year, according to data from the USDA. In its weekly report published Monday, the USDA said wheat shipments totaled 223,972 tons for the week ended May 14. That's down from 511,703 tons the prior week and 431,383 tons at this time last year. Corn shipments totaled 1.38 million tons for the week, which is down from both last week and this time last year. Soybean shipments were also off from the prior week, but exceeded those seen last year--totaling 483,881 tons for this week.

AHEAD

--The EIA will release its Weekly Petroleum Status Update report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.

--The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday.

--The USDA will release its monthly Cattle on Feed report at 3 p.m. ET Friday.

-The USDA will release its monthly Cold Storage report at 3 p.m. ET Friday.

--The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.

Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

May 18, 2026 15:37 ET (19:37 GMT)