Canada's Population Dips for Second Straight Quarter, Falls for 2025

By Robb M. Stewart

OTTAWA--Canada's population saw a rare contraction in 2025 as years of once-booming immigration ended and the number of temporary residents fell across the country.

Preliminary demographic estimates indicate the country's population shrank by 103,504 people, or 0.2%, in the final quarter of 2025, Statistics Canada said Wednesday.

That marked a second straight quarter of decline and outweighed the increase in the population over the first six months of last year. As a result, estimates indicate the population fell by 102,436 over the course of 2025, a dip of 0.2%.

The data will be updated in the coming months, and the national statistics agency cautioned there was greater scope than in past years for revision given rapidly-evolving changes to government policies on international migration. Still, the numbers point to the effects to date of Ottawa's efforts to curb non-permanent immigration that has been blamed for stresses on the housing market and in health care.

Statistics Canada said that even if the population for the last quarter is revised, it is expected to remain well below levels seen in the same period the previous two years. Canada's population rose by 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2024 and by an even greater 0.6% in the same three months of 2023.

The federal government in late 2024 unveiled revised immigration targets. In an effort to further bring down immigration, Prime Minister Mark Carney's government in its fall budget stepped up the plans with a target of a more than 40% cut to the entry of temporary immigrants in 2026 and 2027 from current levels. That was projected to lower the share of temporary immigrants to 5% of the population in 2027 from a peak of 7.6% in late 2025.

Statistics Canada's data showed the number of non-permanent residents in the country fell by 171,296 from Oct. 1 to Jan. 1, with declines recorded in all provinces and in the northern Yukon territory.

After reaching almost 3.5 million at the start of October, the number of temporary residents living in the country steadily decreased to 2,68 million at the end of the quarter, largely due to a fall in the number of people holding a study permit, work permit, or both. Recent increases in the number of extensions of work and study permits could lead to larger than usual revisions, however.

Canada in the fourth quarter welcomed 83,168 permanent immigrants, a fall of almost 20% from the same quarter of 2024 and in line with the target the federal government has set. While down compared with the same quarter in 2024 and in 2023, new permanent immigrants entering the country helped mitigate the drop in the population caused by lower temporary resident numbers and a natural decline in Canada. Births minus deaths was a negative 781 in the fourth quarter, meaning that there were more deaths than births in Canada in the latest quarter.

Even with curbed immigration, the national data agency earlier this year estimated the country's population has the potential to expand by 2075 to between 44 million under a low-growth scenario and up to 75.8 million under a high-growth scenario.

In each case, Statistics Canada's analysis indicated Ontario and Quebec would remain the most populous provinces over the coming 25 years, though Alberta's population could surpass that of British Columbia in almost all scenarios.

Write to Robb M. Stewart at robb.stewart@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 18, 2026 09:58 ET (13:58 GMT)