Goldman Sachs Raises Oil Forecast on Hormuz Disruptions, Lower Inventories
By Giulia Petroni
Goldman Sachs raised its oil-price forecast for the second quarter by around $10 a barrel, citing prolonged disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz and lower inventories.
Brent crude is now seen at $76 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $71 a barrel, from prior expectations of $66 and $62, respectively.
Analysts assume oil exports through Hormuz will remain at current reduced levels for another five days, recover to 70% in the next two weeks and return to normality in the following two weeks.
They estimate a loss of roughly 200 million barrels in Middle Eastern crude production and a sharp 76 million barrel on-month drawdown in OECD inventories, compared with their earlier projection for a 10 million-barrel build.
Goldman forecasts Brent at $66 a barrel at WTI at $62 a barrel in the fourth quarter, up from $60 and $56 previously but lower than in the first half of the year, reflecting a gradual easing of the geopolitical risk premium and rising inventories in the spring.
Write to Giulia Petroni at giulia.petroni@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 04, 2026 03:26 ET (08:26 GMT)
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