Why the Prospect of War With Iran Is Boosting Oil Prices — Commodities Roundup

MARKET MOVEMENTS:

--Brent crude oil is up 1.8% at $71.60 a barrel.

--European benchmark gas is up 6.4% to 33.48 euros a megawatt hour.

--Gold futures are up 0.6% at $5,036.90 a troy ounce.

--LME three-month copper futures are down 0.3% to $12,818.50 a metric ton.

TOP STORY:

Why the Prospect of War With Iran Is Boosting Oil Prices

That's roughly how much petroleum flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a deep channel between Iran and Oman, each day, equivalent to almost a fifth of global oil demand.

Disrupting tanker traffic or shutting the strait altogether is one way Iran might seek to retaliate against a possible American strike, analysts say, which is why oil prices have jumped alongside the U.S. military deployment in the region. Earlier this week, state-affiliated media in Iran said the strait would partially close for "security precautions."

OTHER STORIES:

Crude Glut at Sea Keeps Traders Guessing as Prices Hold on Geopolitical Risk

Oil markets are wrestling with a disconnect that leaves traders questioning the outlook for crude: a large projected global surplus is colliding with surprisingly resilient prices.

Goldman Sachs estimates that the market ran a surplus of roughly 1.5 million barrels a day in 2025. Yet that hasn't translated into a sustained price decline so far this year, with crude oil futures buoyed by geopolitical risk premiums.

A key factor is the physical location of the surplus. Much of the extra crude hasn't built up in storage hubs tied to benchmark pricing but instead as sanctioned crude lingering at sea, with tankers loaded with Russian, Iranian and Venezuelan barrels swelling inventories afloat.

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Repsol Lifts Dividend, Maintains Buyback Pace

Spanish energy company Repsol maintained the pace of its share buyback and raised its dividend for 2026.

The company said it plans to buy back 350 million euros ($412.4 million) of shares over the first half of 2026-keeping the pace steady with the buyback it announced in July. The company will also lift its 2026 dividend by 7.8% to 1.051 euros a share, it said.

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Cenovus 4Q Profit Jumps on Higher Production

Cenovus Energy posted higher profit in the fourth quarter, thanks to greater oil output from its operations.

The Canadian integrated oil and natural gas company posted on Thursday higher net income of 934 million Canadian dollars ($682 million), or C$0.50 a share, up from C$146 million, or C$0.07 a share, in the comparable quarter a year ago.

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State AGs Sue Trump Administration Over Clean-Energy Funding Cuts

Attorneys general from 13 states are suing the Trump administration for ending billions in funding for renewable-energy projects in mostly Democratic-led states.

The lawsuit, filed Wednesday in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California, says that the U.S. Energy Department and the Office of Management and Budget shouldn't be able to end funding that received bipartisan congressional approval.

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Nestle to Shed Ice-Cream Business in Shake-Up

Nestle said it would offload its remaining ice-cream business and pull back from a raft of brands as part of a broader plan to revive the packaged-food giant's fortunes.

The maker of KitKat chocolate bars and Nescafe coffee is pursuing a turnaround under new Chief Executive Philipp Navratil after a string of setbacks, weaker-than-expected results and management upheaval in recent years.

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CenterPoint Energy 4Q Profit Climbs as Expansion Efforts Accelerate

CenterPoint Energy reported a higher profit in the fourth quarter, as it moved to expedite efforts to invest in its energy capabilities and add load.

The Houston-based utility on Thursday posted net income of $264 million, or 40 cents a share, compared with $248 million, or 38 cents a share, in the same quarter a year ago.

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Rio Tinto CEO Says Resolution Project Primary Focus For U.S. Expansion

Rio Tinto will engage with Washington on various opportunities as the Trump administration seeks to bolster America's mining industry, but is primarily focused in the U.S. on advancing the Resolution copper project it is developing with BHP Group in Arizona, Chief Executive Simon Trott said.

Speaking in an interview following the miner's annual results, Trott said Rio Tinto views the U.S. as an attractive place to invest and appreciates the Trump administration's show of support for the giant Resolution development.

MARKET TALKS:

U.S. Natural Gas Futures Gain Ahead of Storage Data -- Market Talk

0917 ET - U.S. natural gas futures pick up after declining the previous two sessions. A cold spell across the Midwest and eastern U.S. is expected to lift demand at the weekend and into early next week. The EIA's weekly storage report at 10:30 a.m. ET is expected to show a near-normal withdrawal, leaving the inventory deficit to the five-year average intact. "However, next week's EIA report is expected to be much smaller than normal due to much warmer-than-normal temperatures over the U.S. this week," NatGasWeather.com says in a note. Nymex gas is up 1.9% at $3.067/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

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Oil Futures Add to Gains on U.S.-Iran Risk Premium -- Market Talk

0915 ET - Crude futures are higher with traders seeing rising risk of a U.S. attack on Iran as it continues its military buildup in the Middle East. While more talks on Iran's nuclear program were held this week, and some progress was said to be made, an oil market concern is that military action could prompt a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, choking off crude shipments. "Iran fears dominate the market and front-end sellers have vanished," Scott Shelton of TP ICAP says in a note. WTI is up 2.2% at $66.59 a barrel and Brent is 1.9% higher at $71.68. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

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Satellite Interference in Iran Could Indicate Anti-Air Defense Measures, Kpler Says -- Market Talk

1013 GMT - Renewed satellite interference off Iran's Assaluyeh complex--the country's largest petrochemical hub--has skewed vessel positions, briefly clustering ships into a single zone and distorting the maritime picture, according to Kpler. "These interferences typically occur when anti-air defense measures are activated," says Yui Torikata, senior crude analyst at the data provider. Kpler says it had deployed countermeasures in advance to safeguard port-call accuracy amid rising regional tensions. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

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Repsol's Earnings Beat Lowered Expectations -- Market Talk

0944 GMT - Repsol's fourth-quarter earnings were slightly better than expected, UBS analysts write. However, expectations for the Spanish energy company had fallen after its update in January. Net income in its upstream unit was 5% above consensus while its industrial unit came in 8% ahead, the analysts write. Its customer unit was 3% below consensus, they say. Shares rise 1.9% to 17.96 euros. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

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European Gas Prices Soar As U.S.-Iran Tensions Raise Alarm Over LNG Flows -- Market Talk

0820 GMT - European natural-gas prices climb in early trading, extending the previous session's gains as traders fear any escalation between the U.S. and Iran could disrupt LNG flows in the region. The benchmark Dutch TTF contract is up 3.5% to 32.60 euros a megawatt-hour after settling more than 5% higher on Wednesday. Gas markets are increasingly worried about shipments through the Strait of Hormuz--especially from Qatar, the second-largest exporter globally. "These supply risks are building at a time when EU gas storage continues to tighten, with it falling closer towards 30% full," ING analysts say. Still, forecasts of warmer weather across Europe, steady gas flows despite outages in Norway and stronger renewable output in Germany are easing pressure, limiting price gains. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

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Oil Extends Gains As U.S.-Iran Concerns Mount

0803 GMT - Oil prices extend the previous session's gains as the market grows increasingly worried about potential U.S. action against Iran. Brent crude rises 0.9% to $70.98 a barrel, while WTI is up 0.7% to $65 a barrel after climbing more than 4% on Wednesday. Tensions between the two nations remain high, with Washington assembling the most air power in the region since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. "With a deal looking increasingly difficult to reach, it also means it will be more challenging to find a route to de-escalation, especially following the US military build-up we have seen in the region," ING analysts say. "And if de-escalation is not possible, the key question will then be what type of action the U.S. takes and how Iran responds to this." (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

Write to Barcelona Editors at barcelonaeditors@dowjones.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

February 19, 2026 10:59 ET (15:59 GMT)