A Billion-Barrel Oil Glut Is Forming at Sea — Commodities Roundup

MARKET MOVEMENTS:

-- Brent crude oil is down 0.8% to $61.47 a barrel.

-- European benchmark gas is down 2.9% to 26.70 euros a megawatt-hour.

-- Gold futures are down 0.3% to $4,221.50 a troy ounce.

-- LME three-month copper futures are up 0.8% to $11,565 a metric ton.

TOP STORY:

A Billion-Barrel Oil Glut Is Forming at Sea

The oil market is grappling with whether sanctioned Russian and Iranian cargoes should still be counted as supply. This may explain why oil prices have been slow to react to a huge glut that is building on the ocean.

There are 1.4 billion barrels of oil "on the water." That is 24% higher than the average for this time of year between 2016 and 2024, according to oil-analytics firm Vortexa. The data measures shipments that are on their way to be unloaded at a port, or cargoes that haven't yet found a buyer.

The rise of oil on water comes from multiple sources. There has been a 16% year-over-year jump in barrels from mainstream producers, Vortexa data shows. OPEC+ has been pumping more oil as it unwinds production cuts, and supply is also increasing from non-OPEC exporters like Brazil, Guyana and the U.S.

OTHER STORIES:

Chevron CEO Sees Growing Potential in Biofuels and Geothermal Energy

WASHINGTON-The head of one of the biggest oil companies in the world has his eye on expanding a variety of alternative energy sources.

"We worked on things that leveraged our capabilities, our customers, our value chains," said Chevron CEO Mike Wirth, highlighting projects for hydrogen, carbon capture and storage, as well as geothermal and biofuels. Wirth, who was speaking at the WSJ CEO Council on Tuesday, discussed the company's low-carbon plans alongside the expansion of its traditional oil-and-gas business.

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Fervo Energy Raises $462 Million, Lands Google as Investor

The geothermal company Fervo Energy has privately raised $462 million from investors including Google to continue to develop a major project in Utah and fund new developments, company officials said.

Houston-based Fervo uses technology pioneered by oil-and-gas drillers to frack rocks, create geothermal reservoirs and crank out electricity. The company is spending more than $2 billion in Utah to build what it expects to be the world's largest enhanced geothermal project. It has said it can help sate power-hungry data centers, electric vehicles and growing industries.

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GE Vernova Stock Rises on Raised Outlook, Doubled Dividend

Shares of GE Vernova rose after the company raised its outlook and doubled its dividend as it expects to gain further momentum from growing demand for electric power.

The stock rose 9.7% to $685.80 in premarket trading on Wednesday.

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Capital Power Agrees $3 Billion Partnership, Lays Out U.S. Growth Plans

Capital Power plans to boost U.S. capacity by half by 2030, deliver double‑digit shareholder returns and expand its natural gas portfolio through a $3 billion partnership with Apollo Global Management.

The Canadian power generation company on Wednesday laid out its targets through the end of the decade, which include a 50% cumulative increase in U.S. capacity, the equivalent of 3.5 gigawatts of energy.

MARKET TALKS:

Grain Futures Lower After Quiet WASDE -- Market Talk

0959 ET - CBOT grain futures are lower in early trading, after yesterday's WASDE report from the USDA showed little changes to the agency's view of the 2025/26 crop. For corn, lower ending stocks and higher exports were encouraging, but analysts remain cautious about the status of the crop heading into next year. "[With ending stocks] just over the two-billion-bushels mark, that's a hefty stockpile to go into the next calendar year with," says Matt Zeller of StoneX in a note. Corn falls 0.7%, soybeans slide 0.2%, and wheat is down 1.2%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

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Crude Futures Edge Up Ahead of U.S. Inventory Data -- Market Talk

0854 ET - Oil futures are modestly higher ahead of the EIA's weekly inventory data due at 10:30 a.m. ET, following an industry report showing a large-than-expected crude draw. The API reported crude stocks down by 4.8 million barrels, analysts note, along with a hefty build in gasoline inventories. Analysts in a WSJ survey forecast a 1.6 million barrel decline in crude stocks and 2 million barrel increase in gasoline. WTI and Brent are up 0.2% at $58.39 and $62.06 a barrel, respectively. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

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Vestas Shares Look Undervalued as Outlook Turns Increasingly Positive -- Market Talk

1351 GMT - Vestas faces an improved outlook for onshore wind operations, with stronger margins, higher free cash flow, and the potential for greater capital return, Kepler Cheuvreux's William Mackie writes. "We see no clear negative drivers in the short term, assess the upside relative to consensus as good and believe the valuation is 30% below potential." The bank says that execution in onshore, pricing and order-book development now exceed previous expectations. Installations in the U.S. are expected to increase in 2026-27, while a faster installation pace in Germany drives Europe. In addition, underlying conditions in the service business are stabilizing. The bank upgrades Vestas stock to buy from reduce and raises its target price to 200 Danish kroner from 100 kroner. Shares rise 4.2% to 167.25 kroner. (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)

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U.S. Natural Gas Retreat Shows Signs of Slowing -- Market Talk

0849 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are moderately lower in early trade with the slide of the past two sessions losing momentum. The retreat from last week's highs came as cold forecasts for coming weeks turned less extreme. "Although it is difficult to ascertain when weather models will stop shedding demand and selling pressure will cease, the medium-term fundamental outlook is sounder than early-week price action suggests," Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. "Weather will remain the governing force for natural gas prices, and further mild shifts may deliver continued selling pressure." Nymex natural gas is down 1.4% at $4.508/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

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Weak TTF Gas Prices Threaten Europe's LNG Inflows -- Market Talk

1151 GMT - Recent weakness in TTF gas prices--and a widening spread between TTF and Asia's JKM benchmark--could slow LNG flows into Europe as suppliers find it more profitable to redirect cargoes to Asia, analysts say. Europe's gas market has come under renewed pressure amid heavy speculative selling, with benchmark Dutch TTF prices currently trading below 27 euros a megawatt hour and down 45% so far this year. This is despite EU gas storage levels falling below 72%, down from a five-year average of 82% for this time of year. "Europe has navigated the demands of the heating season due to ample supplies of LNG and piped gas from Norway," ANZ analysts say. "However, the recent fall in European prices has seen LNG producers reduce the number of cargoes heading to the region." (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

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TotalEnergies Is the Winner From Its Asset-Swap Deal With Galp Energia -- Market Talk

1011 GMT - TotalEnergies gains the most from its asset-swap deal with Galp Energia, UBS analysts write. The French energy major is getting 40% participating interest in Galp's Mopane discovery offshore Namibia for a 10% interest in its Venus project and a 9.4% interest in another field. "The absence of upfront payment is positive, and being operator of both blocks should also strengthen its negotiating position as it works towards Venus final investment decision next year," they write. As its organic capital expenditure falls into late 2020s, the company will have more room to spend on the Mopane project, they add. TotalEnergies shares trade flat at 56.51 euros. Galp's trade up 0.1% at 14.80 euros, having tumbled Tuesday on news of the deal. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

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Palm Oil Falls Amid Concerns Over Rising Stock Levels -- Market Talk

1008 GMT - Palm oil fell, with the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for February delivery closing 45 ringgit lower at 4,061 ringgit a ton. Malaysia's end-November palm oil stocks rose 13% on month to 2.84 million tons, according to Malaysian Palm Oil Board data. Market sentiment has been weighed by the country's persistently high stock levels, said David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. Ng sees support for crude palm oil futures above 4,000 ringgit a ton and resistance at around 4,180 ringgit a ton. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)

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London Miners Rise on Silver Rally, Rate-Cut Expectations -- Market Talk

0921 GMT - London miners rise as silver prices continue to climb and investors bet on an interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Silver futures in New York rise 1.3% to $61.66 a troy ounce after hitting an intraday high of $62.14. The rally is being aided by tight market supply and the rate-cut expectations. Higher interest rates weigh on nonyielding assets like silver. Precious metal miner Hochschild Mining rises 2.6%, Endeavour Mining is up 1.8%, and Fresnillo ticks up 1.4%. Among the diversified miners, Anglo American, Glencore and Rio Tinto's London shares all trade more than 1% higher. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

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Silver Climbs to New Highs on Rate-Cut Bets, Supply Tightness -- Market Talk

0904 GMT - Silver prices continue to climb, hitting fresh record highs on Wednesday as investors bet on an imminent interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve and persistent market tightness. "The rally was fuelled by expectations of a 25-basis-point Fed cut this week, alongside lingering physical supply constraints following October's historic supply squeeze driven by strong demand from India and silver-backed ETFs," MUFG analysts say. "Although inventory pressures have eased as shipments boosted London vault stocks, tight conditions in the over-the-counter market and tariff-related concerns have kept prices elevated." Futures in New York climb 1.6% to $61.84 a troy ounce after hitting an intraday high of $62.14, while spot prices gained 1.3% to $61.45 an ounce after reaching $61.60. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

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December 10, 2025 11:04 ET (16:04 GMT)