Venture Global Shares Sink After BP Wins -2-

Crude Oil Prices Could Be Near Bottom of Cycle -- Market Talk

0316 GMT - There is risk for further weakness in crude prices, ANZ Research strategists Daniel Hynes and Soni Kumari say in a note. They expect lower refinery activity and higher OPEC+ output to lift global oil inventories. A dip below $60/bbl in 4Q wouldn't surprise, they add, though any drop will likely be limited as markets have priced in inventory buildup. For next year, stockpiles outside China are relatively low, which could offset the impact of higher OPEC+ supply, the strategists note. ANZ expects crude at $60-$65/bbl through 1H 2026. A recovery to $70 by end-2026 is possible on a recovery in demand or OPEC production cuts. "Ultimately, we think we are near the bottom of the cycle," they say. Front-month Brent was recently around $65.26/bbl. (colin.ng@wsj.com)

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BP's U.S. LNG Arbitration Win Boosts Its Turnaround Efforts -- Market Talk

0721 GMT - An unexpected win in arbitration proceedings against U.S. LNG-supplier Venture Global adds another positive element to BP's turnaround efforts, Citi analysts write. BP--and others--have accused Venture Global of withholding contracted cargoes of LNG after the Russia-Ukraine war, and instead selling them on the spot market. Disclosures suggest BP will seek more than $1 billion in damages, the analysts write. It is surprising that BP appears to have won given Venture Global recently scored a win in a similar case against Shell, they add. While $1 billion isn't a game-changing sum for BP, it sits well with the company's restructuring narrative, deleveraging and exploration success, they add. Shares trade down 0.6% at 2,760 pence. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

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Gold Rally Signals Mounting Distrust in Current Fiscal, Monetary Order -- Market Talk

0343 GMT - The gold rally this year signals increasing distrust in the existing fiscal and monetary order, Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Barclays global chairman of research, says in a note. The debt loads of four major economies--the U.S., the U.K., France and Japan--are all over 100% of their respective GDP, while their fiscal profiles are still worsening, he says. "Most importantly, there is virtually no political appetite for fiscal consolidation," he adds. Meanwhile, other traditional safe-haven assets, such as the yen and the Swiss franc, are losing some of their appeal. Gold typically rises when economies are teetering or financial markets are collapsing. The yellow metal's recent rally despite healthy financial markets should alert policymakers, he says. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)

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Tesla Best Placed Among U.S. Automakers to Tackle China's Rare-Earth Control -- Market Talk

0320 GMT - Tesla is best positioned among U.S. automakers to navigate China's tighter rare-earth controls, according to Wedbush analysts. "Tesla's massive presence in China on this front is a relative good sign for Musk and co.," the analysts say in a research note. China's tightened grip will have ripple effects for the auto industry, as these raw materials are crucial for producing computer chips, brakes, seats and other critical vehicle components, they add. Automakers have long been trying to reduce their dependence on China for rare earths, but these supply chains haven't been fully integrated, the analysts note. "The bark could be worse than bite," however, as China continues to use such tactics to gain leverage in trade negotiations, they say. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)

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Indonesia's Biodiesel Blend Mandate Might Support Palm Oil Demand, Prices -- Market Talk

0317 GMT - Indonesia's planned rollout of the 50% biodiesel blend mandate by 2H 2026 is expected to tighten palm oil supply and boost crude palm oil prices, CIMB Securities analyst Ivy Ng Lee Fang says in a note. The policy, aimed at reducing diesel imports and strengthening energy security, could generate an additional four million tons of CPO demand, she says. While feedstock constraints might prompt a 45% blend mandate initially, the full 50% blend implementation would be structurally positive for planters. CIMB maintains its overweight rating on Malaysia's agriculture-and-forestry sector, with SD Guthrie, IOI Corp., TA Ann, and Hap Seng Plantations as top picks. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

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Iron Ore Rises as Markets Focus on Chinese Steel Export Limits -- Market Talk

0252 GMT - Iron ore rises in early Asian trade with markets subdued given the recent Chinese holidays. Markets will likely be concerned about any further efforts to limit China's steel exports, ANZ Research strategists Daniel Hynes and Soni Kumari say. China accounts for about 37% of Europe's steel imports, and with European officials reportedly considering doubling tariffs on certain imports to 50%, combined with Beijing's crackdown on overcapacity, a reduction in output is expected. Given weak domestic demand, "any further constraints to steel exports could lead to weakness in demand for steelmaking raw materials, such as iron ore," the strategists say in a note. The contract for January delivery on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is up 1.0% at 800.5 yuan a ton. (jason.chau@wsj.com)

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Strong Catalysts Might Continue to Support Gold Prices -- Market Talk

0250 GMT - Strong catalysts could continue to support gold prices, which have powered past the $4,000 mark, shrugging off dollar strength, Alexandra Symeonidi, corporate credit analyst at William Blair, says. Investor and central bank demand has remained resilient despite added costs to further accumulate gold, she says. Central banks returned to buying gold in August after a brief pause in July, she notes. However, despite strong gold prices, platinum remains the best-performing metal across precious and base metals, with gains of over 80% year to date, while silver crossed $50 for the first time in decades, she says. (monica.gupta@wsj.com)

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Copper Lower Due to Profit-Taking -- Market Talk

0120 GMT - Copper is lower in early Asian trade due to profit-taking. The base metal's recent over-a-year high has come amid supply disruption worries. Copper prices might face short-term corrections, but the medium-to-long-term outlook remains bullish, Nanhua Futures' analysts say in a commentary. The three-month LME copper contract is 0.7% lower at $10,797.00 a ton. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)

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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

October 10, 2025 08:35 ET (12:35 GMT)