North American Morning Briefing: Traders Wait for Rate Decision, Powell; AMD Tumbles

OPENING CALL

Stock futures traded lower as Wall Street awaited a decision on interest rates from the Federal Reserve.

In his press conference, Jerome Powell is expected to signal that the central bank is ready to keep rates higher for longer, in the face of sticky inflation.

"With the Fed's March dot plot having laid out plans to cut three times this year, it is evident that the recent inflationary surge has taken Powell and his colleagues off-guard," Scope Markets said.

"Today is the opportunity for him to set new expectations, and there is understandable concern that this meeting will be dominated by a more hawkish tone."

Amazon.com is also in focus after the company reported record first-quarter sales late Tuesday. The stock was rising 2% premarket.

Other Premarket Movers

Shares of AMD were down 5.6% after the chip maker posted first-quarter earnings that matched Wall Street forecasts and issued a second-quarter revenue outlook at the middle of the range and right in line with estimates.

Pinterest rose 16% after it posted better-than-expected first-quarter earnings and revenue and said it expects higher-than-forecast second-quarter revenue. The company also said it had 518 million active users in the first quarter.

Skyworks Solutions reported second-quarter revenue within the company's target range, and earnings higher than analysts' forecasts. But its CEO said the company in its second quarter saw "below normal trends" in its mobile phone business, "with lower-than-expected end market demand." The stock fell 11%.

Starbucks reported fiscal second-quarter earnings below Wall Street expectations, and said global comparable-store sales fell 4%. The company also lowered its earnings and sales forecast for the rest of 2024, sending the stock down 12%.

Super Micro Computer reported fiscal third-quarter revenue that missed estimates. The stock fell 10%.

Postmarket Movers

Clorox reported lower sales amid lower volume in the latest quarter, and stretched its outlook for the fiscal year. Shares declined 4.5%.

CVRx said it had experienced some issues in sales in its heart-failure business in the first quarter. Shares dropped 26%.

Denny's comparable sales fell in the first quarter in a tough operating environment. Shares fell 2.1%.

Root reported a larger-than-expected jump in first-quarter revenue with higher gross premiums written. Shares rose 28%.

Watch For:

Fed interest rate decision; ADP National Employment Report for April; Construction Spending for March; ISM Report on Business Manufacturing PMI for April; EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report; Canada Manufacturing PMI for April; earnings from CVS Health, Kraft Heinz, Mastercard, Pfizer

Today's Headlines/Must Reads:

- Beijing Braces for a Rematch of Trump vs. China

- 'Catch-Up' Inflation Categories Might Be Destined to Cool, But That Doesn't Mean They Don't Hurt

- Amazon Gets More Fuel for AI Race

MARKET WRAPS

Forex:

Equity markets falling while the Federal Reserve pushes back on interest-rate cut prospects due to persistently high inflation during Wednesday's announcement, could be a boon for the dollar, ING said.

In recent months, the safe-haven dollar's gains have been limited because equities have rallied, despite investors substantially scaling back rate-cut expectations, ING said.

"Rising equity markets have prevented the dollar from rallying as much as yield differentials would suggest."

Energy:

Oil futures were down more than 1% after the latest U.S. economic data further dented hopes the Federal Reserve could start cutting interest rates anytime soon.

Meanwhile, according to reports citing figures from the API, U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly grew last week-a typically bearish sign for the market that implies weaker demand.

Metals:

Metal traded lower, with gold falling back below $2,300, as traders further temper expectations on the timing of U.S. interest-rate cuts this year.

"Swap traders are now pricing in two rate cuts by year end, the fewest number of expected reductions since November 2023," ANZ Research said, adding that a stronger dollar was also weighing on demand.

China

China's latest PMI surveys suggest the economy continues to grow at a faster clip than a few months ago, supporting commodity demand, Capital Economics said.

The new export orders component hit a 14-month high in April, and as export goods are typically commodity-intensive, that could be fueling part of the recent rally in industrial metals, CE said.

The construction sector's rise suggests fiscal stimulus is propping up the ailing property sector. That has seemingly helped put a floor under steel prices, though not for copper, it added.

The data, plus the Politburo's promises of continued policy support, back CE's view that China's metals demand will grow this year, though more slowly than in the past.

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

Brazil's Embraer Plots a New 737-Sized Jet to Rival Boeing

With Boeing in the throes of its latest crisis, one of its smaller rivals, Embraer, is exploring options for a new model to challenge the duopoly for large jets that has dominated the industry for almost three decades.

Internal assessments conducted by Embraer have determined that the Brazilian company has the technological know-how and manufacturing might to develop a next-generation narrow-body aircraft, its first in that market segment, according to people familiar with the company's strategy and planning. Embraer has a market value of around $5 billion and specializes in regional and business jets.

BlackRock's Plan for Your Retirement: A 401(k) With a Monthly Check

A small-but-growing number of companies are offering 401(k) plans that promise employees a degree of predictability, with retirement paychecks they can count on for life.

The goal is to turn a portion of retirement savings into fixed lifetime payments through target-date funds embedded with annuities.

New York Mayor Says Conflict at Columbia Must End as Police Amass Nearby

NEW YORK-New York City Mayor Eric Adams said an increasingly tense standoff at Columbia University "must end now," as police lined up on streets close to an academic building occupied by pro-Palestinian demonstrators.

"I'm urging every student and every protester to walk away from this situation now and continue your advocacy through other means," Adams said at a press conference Tuesday evening. "We will always protect the right to protest, but we must balance that right with the right to keep students, the school and our city safe."

Violence Prompts Police Response at UCLA After Demonstrations Are Broken Up at Columbia

Police were deployed to break up clashes at the University of California, Los Angeles between pro-Palestinian protesters and a group of counterprotesters, hours after demonstrators were removed from an academic building at Columbia University.

At UCLA, footage broadcast from a local news helicopter showed fireworks being directed at the encampment and brawls breaking out between protesters, some armed with sticks and other improvised weapons. The Los Angeles Police Department said early Wednesday on X that it was responding, at the request of the university, to "multiple acts of violence" at the encampment.

Israel Prepares to Send Delegation to Cairo for Last-Chance Gaza Cease-Fire Talks

Israel is ready to send a delegation to Cairo in the coming days to discuss a halt in fighting in the Gaza Strip, Israeli and Egyptian officials said Tuesday, as Arab mediators push militant group Hamas to accept cease-fire terms before an impending military operation in Rafah.

David Barnea, the head of the Mossad intelligence agency, is considering a trip to the Egyptian capital this week after Arab mediators presented to Hamas over the weekend a deal to free hostages held by the group in return for a fighting pause, Egyptian officials said. An Israeli official said Tuesday that Israel could send a delegation depending on developments in the negotiations.

Write to paul.larkins@dowjones.com TODAY IN CANADA

Earnings [1Q Unless Stated]:

5N Plus

Barrick Gold

Bausch + Lomb

Brookfield Infrastructure

Canfor

Canfor Pulp Products

Capital Power

Cenovus Energy

CGI [2Q]

Dayforce

Enerflex

Fortis

Franco-Nevada

GFL Environmental

Gildan Activewear

Great-West Lifeco

Loblaw Companies

Lundin Mining

North American Construction

Parkland

PHX Energy Services

Russel Metals

Taseko Mines

Toromont Industries

Tourmaline Oil

Economic Calendar [ET]:

0930 Apr Canada Manufacturing PMI

1615 Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem appears before Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Commerce, Economy

Stocks to Watch:

CN Announces C$1.25 Billion Debt Offering; Offering C$700 Million 4.60% Notes Due 2029; Offering C$550 Million 5.10% Notes Due 2054; Plans to Use Net Proceeds for General Needs; Expects to Close Offering on May 2

GameOn Granted Management Cease Trade Order by Regulator; GameOn Applied for Order Due to Delay in Filing Annual Financial Statements; Reasons for Anticipated Delay Include Due Diligence on Reporting of New Commercial Agreements, Blockchain Grants; GameOn Working to Complete Audit in Timely Manner

Kolibri Global Energy Expects to File Annual Results by End of Week; Kolibri Received Management Cease Trade Order April 3 Due to Delay in Annual Filing; No Material Change in Information Contained in News Release Issued April 3

New Gold 1Q Rev $192.1M; 1Q Loss/Shr 6c; 1Q Adj EPS 2c; Annual Guidance Tracking to Plan; 1Q Production Totaled 70,898 Gold Ounces and 13.3 M Pounds of Copper; On-track for 2024 Consolidated Production Guidance of 310,000 to 350,000 Ounces of Gold and 50 to 60 M Pounds of Copper

TD Bank said it would set aside $450 million for fines it is likely to face from U.S. regulators because weaknesses with its anti-money laundering practices.

(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

May 01, 2024 06:11 ET (10:11 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2024 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.