Week Ahead for FX, Bonds: U.S. Economic Data, BOJ -2-

Bank Indonesia convenes Wednesday to set its policy rate. Like other central banks in the region, analysts expect currency stability will be at the forefront of its concerns.

Expectations for rate cuts have been pushed back as the rupiah tumbled to four-year lows versus the dollar, following other Asian currencies lower amid broad strength in the U.S. currency.

Barclays economists and strategists see scope for a rate hike to defend the rupiah.

"The bar for a rate hike is not particularly high," senior regional economist Brian Tan and strategist Audrey Ong said. Policymakers still appear satisfied with recent GDP prints and inflation is within target range.

They also noted comments from the Indonesian central bank's governor saying BI will continue to ensure rupiah stability via FX intervention and other measures.

Morgan Stanley economists continue to expect that BI will follow the Federal Reserve on cuts.

"When the Fed pivots towards cutting rates, the U.S. dollar will be expected to weaken and we see this as opening up the policy space for BI to cut rates," economist Derrick Kam said.

MS has pushed back its view for a first rate cut from BI to August from late June.

SINGAPORE

Singapore watchers will be looking at inflation data on Tuesday and industrial production figures on Friday for a clearer picture of the economy's trajectory. Some disappointment in advance estimates for first-quarter growth and non-oil domestic exports data for March may have dimmed the view for the city-state's recovery.

Signs of sticky inflation will bolster the case for continued monetary-policy tightness by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

Singapore's central bank earlier this month decided to keep its policy settings unchanged. The MAS's monetary policy is centered on Singapore's exchange rate, which it considers an effective tool for maintaining price stability in the small and open economy.

Economists at ING expect Singapore's core inflation to ease slightly but stay high in March.

"This should keep the central bank on notice," they said, continuing to expect an extended policy pause.

ANZ Research analysts think core inflation, which MAS watches closely, will stay sticky for at least the next two quarters. Looser monetary policy settings only seem likely in early 2025, they said.

On Friday, industrial production numbers for March will be watched for clues on the final first-quarter GDP print.

Barclays economists think Singapore's industrial production likely slipped back into decline in March, partly due to an unfavorable base effect but also a sequential pullback following a strong February.

SOUTH KOREA

On Thursday, South Korea publishes advance GDP estimates for the first quarter.

The print will likely show that the economy remains largely on track for recovery.

The median forecast of five economists polled by The Wall Street Journal is for GDP to have grown 0.5% on quarter and 2.4% on year for the January-March period. That compares with an expansion of 0.6% on quarter and 2.2% on year in the last quarter of 2023.

Though higher interest rates could weigh on private consumption, the rebound of the semiconductor industry and growing exports likely continued to support the economy, Hana Securities economist Chun Kyu-yeon said.

The central bank expects GDP to grow 2.1% in 2024 after 1.4% growth in 2023.

(All references to days for Asian events are in local times.)

-- Additional reporting by David Winning, Megumi Fujikawa, Amanda Lee, Ronnie Harui, Kwanwoo Jun, Emese Bartha, Dominic Chopping and Miriam Mukuru

Write to Jessica Fleetham at jessica.fleetham@wsj.com and Fabiana Negrin Ochoa at fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com

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April 19, 2024 10:54 ET (14:54 GMT)

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