U.S. Leading Economic Index Falls Again in June

By Will Feuer

An economic index that measures U.S. business cycles fell again in June, marking the 15th consecutive month of declines.

The Conference Board said Thursday its Leading Economic Index slipped 0.7% to 106.1 in June after decreasing by 0.6% in May, showing that its underlying components deteriorated.

Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal expected the index to fall by 0.6%.

The monthslong decline of the index is now the longest streak of consecutive decreases since 2007-08 in the runup to the housing-driven economic slowdown, said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, The Conference Board's senior manager of business cycle indicators.

"The U.S. LEI fell again in June, fueled by gloomier consumer expectations, weaker new orders, an increased number of initial claims for unemployment, and a reduction in housing construction," she said. "Taken together, June's data suggests economic activity will continue to decelerate in the months ahead."

The Leading Economic Index is a predictive variable that anticipates turning points in the business cycle by around seven months. The indicator is based on 10 components, among them initial claims for unemployment insurance, manufacturers' new orders, building permits of new private housing units, stock prices, and consumers expectations. It is intended to signal swings in the business cycle.

The Coincident Economic Index--a measure of current economic activity--remained roughly unchanged in June at 110.0. The Lagging Economic Index also held steady at 118.4, The Conference Board said.

Write to Will Feuer at Will.Feuer@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 20, 2023 10:32 ET (14:32 GMT)

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