Managed Accounts Under Adverse Market Scenarios

Where and When Personalization Adds Value

Spencer U. Look, Jack VanDerhei

Nov 3, 2026

Retirement strategies are usually compared on average results, but how they hold up in down markets matters too. This paper uses Morningstar’s Defined Contribution Outcomes Model to compare managed accounts with do-it-yourself portfolios and target-date funds under simulated severely poor market conditions. 

The findings suggest that managed accounts can add meaningful value when markets struggle, through both better investment choices and higher savings rate from managed accounts users. For plan sponsors, the results offer a clearer view of how personalization can help shape participant outcomes. 

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The results presented in this paper are hypothetical. They were generated using the Morningstar Center for Retirement & Policy Studies' Defined Contribution Outcomes Model (DCOM) and do not represent the actual results of any participant, plan, or account. They do not reflect actual trading or the actual performance of any managed-account service, target-date fund, or other investment. Projected outcomes are based on simulated capital-market paths and on assumptions about, among other things, asset-class returns, contribution rates, salary growth, investment horizon, and fees. Results are shown net of an assumed 0.40% annual managed-account fee. The adverse-market scenarios examined are drawn from the model's simulated distribution and are not forecasts of actual future market events. Hypothetical results have inherent limitations, and changes in the model's assumptions or methodology may materially alter the results. Hypothetical results are provided for illustrative purposes only and do not guarantee future results.