Company Reports

Carlsberg is the third-largest brewer globally, with strong positions in several markets including western China and Scandinavia. Through its strong market share, the firm has built up regional cost advantages, enabling superior procurement, manufacturing, and distribution efficiencies. Carlsberg’s scale benefits coupled with its entrenched relationships and route-to-market strategy should enable the firm to continue to earn excess economic profits over the next decade.

Carlsberg’s half-year fiscal 2026 results included year-over-year organic revenue growth of 2.7% and operating profit growth of 5.9%. Volumes were up 1.7%, with mixed performance across regions. Due to the results missing consensus, shares fell around 4% in early trading on Aug. 19.

Carlsberg’s first-quarter trading update included year-over-year organic revenue growth of 3.6% and volume growth of 2.8%, ahead of company-compiled consensus. Revenue per hectoliter increased 1%, with growth across all regions. Shares rose nearly 4% in early trading on April 29.

Carlsberg is the third-largest brewer globally, with strong positions in several markets including western China and Scandinavia. Through its strong market share, the firm has built up regional cost advantages, enabling superior procurement, manufacturing, and distribution efficiencies. Carlsberg’s scale benefits coupled with its entrenched relationships and route-to-market strategy should enable the firm to continue to earn excess economic profits over the next decade.

Carlsberg’s full-year 2025 results included organic revenue growth of 1% (excluding San Miguel losses) and organic operating profit growth of 5%, which is at the top end of management’s 3%-5% target. Shares were up around 3% intraday on Feb. 4.

Carlsberg’s third-quarter fiscal 2025 trading update included organic revenue growth of 0.2% (excluding San Miguel losses) and a 1.7% volume decline. Revenue per hectoliter increased 2% in the quarter, with 5% growth in the premium portfolio. Shares fell around 1% on Oct. 30.

Carlsberg is the third-largest brewer globally, with strong positions in several markets including western China and Scandinavia. Through its strong market share, the firm has built up regional cost advantages, enabling superior procurement, manufacturing, and distribution efficiencies. Carlsberg’s scale benefits coupled with its entrenched relationships and route-to-market strategy should enable the firm to continue to earn excess economic profits over the next decade.

Carlsberg’s first-half fiscal 2025 results included organic revenue growth of 1.3% (excluding San Miguel losses) and operating profit growth of 2.3%, below consensus. Shares fell around 6% intraday.

Carlsberg released its first-quarter trading statement, with reported revenue growth of 17.4% year over year, with an acquisition impact of 18.4%. On an organic basis, revenue declined 1.5%, slightly below consensus. Shares were down nearly 2% at the market open on April 29.

We are relaunching coverage of four of the largest global brewers: InBev, Ambev, Heineken, and Carlsberg. We are maintaining our Morningstar Economic Moat Ratings of wide for InBev and Ambev, upgrading Heineken to wide from narrow, and upgrading Carlsberg to narrow from none. Ambev is our preferred pick, as we believe the market does not fully reflect its region-leading growth potential, offering 33% upside from current levels.

Carlsberg is the third-largest brewer globally, with strong positions in several markets including western China and Scandinavia. Through its strong market share, the firm has built up regional cost advantages, enabling superior procurement, manufacturing, and distribution efficiencies. Carlsberg’s scale benefits coupled with its entrenched relationships and route-to-market strategy should enable the firm to continue to earn excess economic profits over the next decade.

We maintain our DKK 970/$28 fair value estimate for no-moat Carlsberg after the firm reported 2024 results in line with our expectations. As with peers, a challenging consumer environment in key markets led to lower-than-expected volume growth. Despite headwinds throughout 2024, Carlsberg reached the top end of its full-year profitability guidance with 6% organic operating profit growth, largely driven by efficiencies. Due to near-term uncertainty, management provided broad 2025 guidance of 1%-5% organic operating profit growth. Nevertheless, the firm is confident that it can meet its long-term targets. The stock was up 6% following the announcement, and we continue to view it as undervalued. Still, we prefer our wide-moat companies in the brewing industry that have stronger market positions.

No-moat Carlsberg reported its third-quarter trading update for 2024, which was in line with our expectations. Similar to its peers, a challenging consumer environment dimmed Carlsberg’s top-line growth in the quarter. Nevertheless, management maintained its full-year outlook including organic operating profit growth of 4%-6%. Therefore, we maintain our DKK 970 per-share fair value estimate and continue to view the stock as undervalued. Still, we prefer our wide-moat stocks in the brewing industry, which have broader portfolios.

Carlsberg has a reasonably strong namesake brand and a portfolio of superpremium brands that position it well for ongoing premiumization. It has strong positions in a cluster of generally small markets, notably Scandinavia and western China, but is a second-tier player in other larger markets such as the UK, Germany and Vietnam.

Carlsberg delivered modest results for the first half of 2024, slightly missing on some estimates from company-compiled consensus. However, management remains confident about the second half of the year and updated the 2024 outlook for organic operating profit growth to 4%-6% from 1%-5% previously. During the second quarter, Carlsberg announced several upcoming acquisitions, which will increase leverage, leading to the termination of the earlier proposed share buyback. We keep our fair value estimate of DKK 970 per share.

No-moat Carlsberg reported revenue growth of 4.4%, broadly in line with our estimates and company-compiled consensus. Results were driven by volume growth and revenue per hectoliter growth, partially offset by negative currency effects. The outlook for 2024 remains unchanged, with organic operating profit growth expected to be between 1% and 5%. Management plans to increase the marketing investment for the full year by more than 10% to support its long-term growth initiatives while keeping the overall ratio of selling, general, and administrative expenses flat as a percentage of revenue. Due to the group's strong financial position, the company also announced a new quarterly buyback program amounting to DKK 1 billion, running from April 30 to Aug. 9. The share price remained broadly stable at the time of writing. We make no change to our DKK 970 fair value estimate.

Carlsberg has a reasonably strong namesake brand and a portfolio of superpremium brands that position it well for ongoing premiumisation. It has strong positions in a cluster of generally small markets, notably Scandinavia and western China, but is a second-tier player in other larger markets such as the UK, Germany and Vietnam.

Carlsberg has a reasonably strong namesake brand and a portfolio of superpremium brands that position it well for ongoing premiumisation. It has strong positions in a cluster of generally small markets, notably Scandinavia and western China, but is a second-tier player in other larger markets such as the U.K., Germany and Vietnam.

Carlsberg modestly beat our expectations for fourth-quarter revenue, and this trickled down the income statement to deliver full-year 2023 adjusted earnings per share of DKK 51.1, marginally above our forecast. Guidance for 2024 is slightly below our estimates amid increased investment and continued uncertainty in China. More significantly, however, management unveiled a new strategic plan, Accelerate SAIL, which includes improved medium-term revenue growth forecasts of 4% to 6%, up from the previous guidance of 3% to 5%. For now, we are retaining our steady state revenue growth estimate of 4% but will review whether we believe premiumization and footprint expansion will unlock faster growth. We are retaining our DKK 870 fair value estimate and no-moat rating.

Carlsberg reported a broadly in-line third-quarter trading update, but we are lowering our fair value estimate to DKK 870 per share from DKK 970 due to the value destruction created by the loss of the company's Russian business. Carlsberg had been attempting to find a buyer for Baltika Breweries in order to comply with sanctions against Russia, but we now believe it will not receive any compensation for these assets, and we assign a zero value to them. The market appears to have anticipated this development, and we believe the stock is fairly valued.