Carlsberg Earnings: Q4 Beat as Management Sets Aggressive Medium-Term Growth Guidance

Carlsberg modestly beat our expectations for fourth-quarter revenue, and this trickled down the income statement to deliver full-year 2023 adjusted earnings per share of DKK 51.1, marginally above our forecast. Guidance for 2024 is slightly below our estimates amid increased investment and continued uncertainty in China. More significantly, however, management unveiled a new strategic plan, Accelerate SAIL, which includes improved medium-term revenue growth forecasts of 4% to 6%, up from the previous guidance of 3% to 5%. For now, we are retaining our steady state revenue growth estimate of 4% but will review whether we believe premiumization and footprint expansion will unlock faster growth. We are retaining our DKK 870 fair value estimate and no-moat rating.