Company Reports

Vinci’s strategy to extend the maturity of its concession portfolio by adding freehold or long-dated airport concessions will maintain the defensiveness of its revenue stream. The group's portfolio of long-dated concession assets, such as toll roads and airports (62% of operating profits), is difficult to replicate and provides a stable source of income.

Vinci reported 2% revenue growth during the first half of fiscal 2026, exceeding FactSet consensus, driven by an acceleration in top-line growth during the second quarter. The energy solutions segment was the primary contributor to the group's revenue growth and a 5% increase in group EBIT.

Vinci reported first-quarter sales with a 0.5% organic decline, as weakness in construction (negative 4.7% like for like) offset solid growth in concessions (3%) and energy solutions (2.9%). Full-year guidance was confirmed.

Vinci’s strategy to extend the maturity of its concession portfolio by adding freehold or long-dated airport concessions will maintain the defensiveness of its revenue stream. The group's portfolio of long-dated concession assets, such as toll roads and airports (62% of operating profits), is difficult to replicate and provides a stable source of income.

Vinci reported EPS growth of 12%, or 3% including an additional EUR 449 million tax charge imposed by the French government for large corporations, which exceeded FactSet consensus. France contributes 41% of Vinci's earnings, and the additional tax is expected to also be applied in fiscal 2026.

Vinci reported 3.5% organic revenue growth in the third quarter, driven by passenger growth across its airport business and several energy-related projects. Third-quarter results provided no details on any impact from ongoing discussions in the French parliament on the 2026 national budget.

Vinci’s strategy to extend the maturity of its concession portfolio by adding freehold or long-dated airport concessions will maintain the defensiveness of its revenue stream. The group's portfolio of long-dated concession assets, such as toll roads and airports (70% of operating profits), is difficult to replicate and provides a stable source of income.

The introduction of a one-off additional tax on large corporations by the French government was the driver behind Vinci's 4% decline in first-half 2025 EPS to EUR 3.34. On a constant-tax basis, EPS would have risen by an impressive 12% year over year during the first half.

Vinci reported first-quarter 2025 revenue growth of 4%, which was entirely driven by its concessions and energy solutions segments. Full-year guidance was kept unchanged.

Vinci’s strategy to extend the maturity of its concession portfolio by adding freeheld or long-dated airport concessions will help the business earn maintainable economic profits. The group's portfolio of long-dated concession assets such as toll roads and airports (70% of operating profits) are difficult to replicate and provide a stable source of income.

Vinci grew its diluted EPS by 3% to EUR 8.43 during fiscal 2024, which includes a EUR 284 million charge relating to the new tax on long-distance transport infrastructure operators in France. Excluding the tax, diluted EPS would have grown 9% year over year.

Narrow-moat Vinci reported a mere 1% revenue growth (0% organic) during the third quarter, missing FactSet consensus by roughly 3%. The phasing out of several major projects in its Construction and Cobra IS segments was enough to offset 5% organic revenue growth across Vinci's concession businesses. We don't view there to be any fundamental cause for concern of its more cyclical segments and point to Vinci's order backlog growth of 9% year to date to assure investors. Shares appear cheap, currently trading at a 20% discount to our EUR 133 fair value estimate, which we maintain. The market remains concerned about the political risk the business faces, with the French government considering imposing another corporate tax charge.

Narrow-moat Vinci reported first-half operating income growth of 9%, ahead of its 4% revenue growth during the same period. Operating income growth was hit by a newly introduced tax on long-distance infrastructure in France, which hit its autoroutes division by EUR 120 million. The recently imposed tax, combined with political uncertainty in the region continues to drive the mismatch between the group's earnings growth and subdued share price performance. Shares appear attractively priced, trading at a 20% discount to our EUR 133 fair value estimate, which we maintain. As mentioned in our June 10 note “Surprise French Election Reintroduces Political Risk for Toll Road Operators,” we believe this risk is overstated and presents a buying opportunity for investors, with shares trading at a compelling dividend and forward free cash flow yield of 4% and 8%, respectively.

Vinci’s strategy to extend the maturity of its concession portfolio will help the business earn maintainable economic profits. The group's portfolio of long-dated concession assets such as toll roads and airports (70% of operating profits) are difficult to replicate and provide a stable source of income.

Shares in Vinci opened 5% lower following the surprise announcement at the weekend of French national elections triggered by the National Rally’s resounding victory in the recent European Union parliamentary elections. In previous election campaigns, this political party has pledged to renationalize highways, which is a direct attack on Vinci as it operates 50% of French toll roads. We believe the likelihood of such a decision being imposed and any subsequent implementation is low and maintain our EUR 133 fair value estimate, offering investors approximately 25% upside from the current share price.

Narrow-moat Vinci’s first quarter results reaffirm our investment thesis that the business provides investors with defensive growth at an undervalued price. First-quarter organic sales growth of 4% was broad-based across its operating segments, with the ongoing recovery in its airports business making it the standout division. Its order backlog is at a record high and provides visibility into 14 months of revenue, which adds to the defensiveness of its concessions business. While no operating profit details were provided, we anticipate its record order book will allow Vinci to be selective about future construction and energy projects, which combined with increasing customers at its airports division will help deliver margin expansion. Shares are trading at a 15% discount to our EUR 133 fair value estimate, which we maintain.

Vinci’s strategy to extend the maturity of its concession portfolio will help the business earn maintainable economic profits. The group's portfolio of long-dated concession assets such as toll roads and airports (70% of operating profits) are difficult to replicate and provide a stable source of income.

We’re raising Vinci’s fair value estimate to EUR 133 from EUR 122 following its impressive fiscal 2023 results, which we expect can be maintained in future. Vinci’s portfolio of high-quality concession assets and its strong contracting order book generated a record EUR 6.6 billion of free cash flow, materially beating management’s guidance of between EUR 4 billion and EUR 4.5 billion provided at the start of fiscal 2023. Guidance of further earnings growth in fiscal 2024 confirms the business’ stable source of earnings and attractive end-markets. Shares currently offer investors 11% upside to our revised fair value estimate.

We expect Vinci's Cobra IS division will achieve its EUR 7.5 billion 2025 revenue target at a 7.5% operating margin, which was announced at Vinci’s capital markets day dedicated to the acquired subsidiary. Its record EUR 14.9 billion order backlog will underpin the division's ability to deliver its target. The business also plans to add 1.5 gigawatts of renewable assets annually, targeting 12 GW by 2030, consisting mostly of solar farms, which will add to Vinci’s portfolio of long-dated toll-road and airport concession assets. We maintain our EUR 122 fair value estimate and narrow moat rating for Vinci. Shares are marginally undervalued.

Narrow-moat Vinci grew revenue by 9% during the third quarter, supported by the ongoing recovery in passenger numbers across its airports. The defensiveness of its Concessions business, which tends to be resilient to macroeconomic conditions, was supported by impressive organic sales growth at its Energies and Cobra IS segments—10.6% and 13.5%, respectively. Management raised its outlook for its Autoroutes business and expects airport passenger numbers in the fourth quarter to be similar to prepandemic levels, which coincides with its upgraded free cash flow guidance of at least EUR 4.5 billion from between EUR 4.0 and EUR 4.5 billion. Shares are trading marginally higher but remain undervalued to our EUR 122 fair value estimate, which we maintain.