Company Reports

DHL Group is the leading postal operator in Europe, among the top three international express package carriers, and the world's largest air and ocean forwarder. Its legacy German postal operations (roughly 12% of total revenue) face secular demand declines and are heavily regulated. However, we expect growth in the DHL segments and growth in the German (and international-domestic) parcel delivery operations to continue to offset declines in traditional mail-related activity (on average) over the freight cycle, and despite an overall soft freight and logistics backdrop in 2023 and into early 2024.

Narrow-moat DHL Group’s fourth-quarter organic top line fell 7% (excluding foreign exchange) year over year but was mostly in line with our forecast. Lower revenue stems from muted retail-sector restocking and sluggish industrial end markets for DHL Express (Express' time-definite B2B package volumes are still declining), and from global air and ocean forwarding demand and pricing conditions retrenching off historic pandemic-driven highs.

DHL Group is the leading postal operator in Europe, among the top three international express package carriers, and the world's largest air and ocean forwarder. Its legacy German postal operations (roughly 12% of total revenue) face secular demand declines and are heavily regulated. However, we expect growth in the DHL segments and growth in the German (and international-domestic) parcel delivery operations to continue to offset declines in traditional mail-related activity (on average) over the freight cycle, and despite an overall soft freight and logistics backdrop in 2023 and into early 2024.

DHL Group is the leading postal operator in Europe, among the top three international express package carriers, and the world's largest air and ocean forwarder. Its legacy German postal operations (roughly 12% of total revenue) face secular demand declines and are heavily regulated. However, we expect growth in the DHL segments and growth in the German (and international-domestic) parcel delivery operations to continue to offset declines in traditional mail-related activity (on average) over the freight cycle, and despite normalization of B2C package demand and an overall soft freight and logistics backdrop in 2023.

Narrow-moat DHL Group’s third-quarter top line fell 15% (excluding foreign exchange) year over year, below our expected run rate on pronounced global forwarding weakness—it's been tough to spot a trough amid the industry's heavy normalization phase.

Deutsche Post DHL is the leading postal operator in Europe, among the top three international express package carriers, and the world's largest air and ocean forwarder. Its legacy German postal operations (roughly 12% of total revenue) face secular demand declines and are heavily regulated. However, we expect growth in the DHL segments and growth in the German (and international-domestic) parcel delivery operations to continue to offset declines in traditional mail-related activity (on average) over the long run, and despite normalization of B2C package demand and an overall soft freight and logistics backdrop in 2023.

Narrow-moat Deutsche Post DHL’s second quarter top-line was down 14% (organically) year over year, modestly below our expected run rate. Relative to the same period last year, lower revenue stems in part from retail-sector destocking and sluggish industrial end markets, and as global air and ocean forwarding demand and rates continue to correct off previously strong levels (especially on trade routes from China). On the positive side, overall express and forwarding volume trends appear to be stabilizing as the current normalization phase works through, and organic supply chain revenue was up about 5%, with help from healthy new business wins.

Deutsche Post DHL is the leading postal operator in Europe, among the top three international express package carriers, and the world's largest air and ocean forwarder. Its legacy German postal operations (roughly 12% of total revenue) face secular demand declines and are heavily regulated. However, we expect growth in the DHL segments and growth in the German (and international-domestic) parcel delivery operations to continue to offset declines in traditional mail-related activity (on average) over the long run, and despite normalization of B2C package demand and an overall soft freight and logistics backdrop in 2023.

Deutsche Post DHL is the leading postal operator in Europe, among the top three international express package carriers, and the world's largest air and ocean forwarder. Its legacy German postal operations (roughly 12% of total revenue) face secular demand declines and are heavily regulated. However, we expect growth in the DHL segments and growth in the German (and international-domestic) parcel delivery operations to continue to offset declines in traditional mail-related activity (on average) over the long run, and despite incremental normalization of B2C package demand and an overall softer freight and logistics backdrop in 2023.

Narrow-moat Deutsche Post DHL’s first-quarter top line fell 8% (organically) year over year, driven in part by retail-sector destocking and weakening industrial end markets. Global air and ocean forwarding demand and rates also continued to correct off exceptional levels seen earlier last year, especially on trade routes from Asia to the U.S. and Europe. Lingering normalization of business-to-consumer activity (off pandemic highs) for express, e-commerce solutions, and Parcel Germany also played a role, though comps are becoming less challenging. That said, this pullback is not a surprise and revenue was mostly in line with our expectations.

Deutsche Post DHL is the leading postal operator in Europe, among the top three international express package carriers, and the world's largest air and ocean forwarder. Its legacy German postal operations (roughly 12% of total revenue) face secular demand declines and are heavily regulated. However, we expect growth in the DHL segments and growth in the German (and international-domestic) parcel delivery operations to continue to offset declines in traditional mail-related activity (on average) over the long run, and despite incremental normalization of B2C package demand and an overall softer freight and logistics backdrop in 2023.

Narrow-moat Deutsche Post DHL’s fourth-quarter top-line trend flipped negative, falling 2.5% organically year over year (versus 11% growth last quarter) on less robust peak season demand, the retail-sector inventory restocking pullback, and weakening industrial end markets. Global air and ocean forwarding demand and rates (in particular) corrected heavily during the quarter. Lingering normalization of B2C activity (off pandemic highs) for express, e-commerce solutions, and parcel Germany also contributed to lower revenue, though comps are turning less challenging. Overall, however, these trends are not surprising, and revenue was generally in line with our expected run rate for the quarter.

Narrow-moat Deutsche Post DHL’s third-quarter organic revenue grew 11% organically year over year (versus 16% growth last quarter), once again ahead of our expected run rate due in part to fuel surcharge noise. Relative to the same period last year, revenue growth came from higher fuel surcharges and lingering core pricing gains (for global forwarding and express), partly offset by ongoing normalization in B2C parcel volumes and softening B2B activity (slowing economic trends) across all segments. We note that the global air and ocean forwarding backdrop is now seeing more pronounced normalization off historic highs, though that's not a surprise. Also, Express' B2C parcel-delivery comparisons are starting to ease as the firm lapped the peak of pandemic-driven residential deliveries seen in first-half 2021.

Deutsche Post DHL is the leading postal operator in Europe, among the top three international express package carriers, and the world's largest air and ocean forwarder. Its legacy German postal operations (roughly 12% of total revenue) face secular demand declines and are heavily regulated. However, we expect growth in the DHL segments and growth in the German (and international-domestic) parcel delivery operations to continue to offset declines in traditional mail-related activity over the long run, and despite near-term B2C package normalization.

Deutsche Post DHL is the leading postal operator in Europe, among the top three international express package carriers, and the world's largest air and ocean forwarder. Its legacy German postal operations (roughly 12% of total revenue) face secular demand declines and are heavily regulated. However, we expect growth in the DHL segments and growth in the German (and international-domestic) parcel delivery operations to continue to offset declines in traditional mail-related activity over the long run, and despite near-term B2C package normalization.

Narrow-moat Deutsche Post DHL’s second-quarter organic revenue grew 16% organically year over year, ahead of our expected run rate due to fuel surcharge noise and another outperformance in the global air and ocean forwarding division. Relative to the same period last year, total revenue growth came from higher fuel surcharges, robust pricing conditions (for global forwarding and express), and higher B2B shipment weights at Express, partly offset by normalizing B2C-parcel volumes across all segments, including very tough comparisons.

Deutsche Post DHL is the leading postal operator in Europe, among the top three international express package carriers, and the world's largest air and ocean forwarder. Its legacy German postal operations (roughly 12% of total revenue) face secular demand declines and are heavily regulated. However, we expect growth in the DHL segments and growth in the German (and international-domestic) parcel delivery operations to continue to offset declines in traditional mail-related activity over the long run, and despite near-term B2C package normalization.

Narrow-moat Deutsche Post DHL’s first-quarter organic revenue grew 17% year over year, ahead of our expected run rate due to outperformance in the global air and ocean forwarding division. Relative to the same period last year, total revenue growth came from rising fuel surcharges, favorable overall pricing conditions (especially for global forwarding and express), and higher business-to-business, or B2B, shipment weights at Express, partly offset by normalizing business-to-consumer, or B2C, parcel volumes across all segments, including very tough comparisons.

Deutsche Post DHL is the leading postal operator in Europe, among the top three international express package carriers, and the world's largest air and ocean forwarder. Its legacy German postal operations (about 12% of total revenue) face secular demand declines and are heavily regulated. However, we expect growth in the DHL segments and momentum in the German (and international-domestic) parcel delivery operations to continue to offset declines in traditional mail-related activity in the long run. DHL Express is well positioned in international and intercontinental express parcel markets that touch Europe and North America, and its global air and ocean forwarding unit is benefiting from successful IT reorganization efforts, including rising process automation. Additionally, heavy network investment and aggressive efficiency initiatives in years past have been supporting solid margin expansion and market share gains at Express. The coronavirus-driven spike in business-to-consumer parcel delivery demand helped propel Express' margins to new highs, and although growth comparisons have become difficult for B2C shipments, underlying e-commerce tailwinds should remain healthy through 2022.

Deutsche Post DHL is the leading postal operator in Europe, among the top three international express package carriers, and the world's largest air and ocean forwarder. Its legacy German postal operations (about 12% of total revenue) face secular demand declines and are heavily regulated. However, we expect growth in the DHL segments and momentum in the German (and international-domestic) parcel delivery operations to continue to comfortably offset declines in traditional mail-related activity in the long run. DHL Express is well positioned in international and intercontinental express parcel markets that touch Europe and North America, and its global air and ocean forwarding unit is benefiting from successful IT reorganization efforts, including rising process automation. Additionally, heavy network investment and aggressive efficiency initiatives in years past have been supporting solid margin expansion and market share gains at Express. The coronavirus-driven spike in business-to-consumer parcel delivery demand helped propel Express' margins to new highs, and although growth comparisons have become difficult for B2C shipments, underlying e-commerce tailwinds should remain healthy through 2022.