Deutsche Post DHL Navigating Freight and Parcel Slowdown, but Q4 Results Mostly in Line

Narrow-moat Deutsche Post DHL’s fourth-quarter top-line trend flipped negative, falling 2.5% organically year over year (versus 11% growth last quarter) on less robust peak season demand, the retail-sector inventory restocking pullback, and weakening industrial end markets. Global air and ocean forwarding demand and rates (in particular) corrected heavily during the quarter. Lingering normalization of B2C activity (off pandemic highs) for express, e-commerce solutions, and parcel Germany also contributed to lower revenue, though comps are turning less challenging. Overall, however, these trends are not surprising, and revenue was generally in line with our expected run rate for the quarter.