Company Reports

We intend to cease coverage of IDP Education, Polynovo, Avita, and Clinuvel. We plan to cease coverage on or around June 30, 2026.

We expect Avita’s RECELL to pose a challenge to the standard of care for larger burns, currently a skin graft sourced from elsewhere on the patient’s body. We believe Avita will be successful based on the product’s clinical performance, ease of use and relative price point. RECELL creates Spray-on Skin within 30 minutes from a skin sample, typically less than 5% of the size required in a graft. It has been clinically demonstrated to heal the burn site as effectively as a skin graft without creating a large donor site wound.

We expect Avita’s RECELL to pose a challenge to the standard of care for larger burns, currently a skin graft sourced from elsewhere on the patient’s body. We believe Avita will be successful based on the product’s clinical performance, ease of use and relative price point. RECELL creates Spray-on Skin within 30 minutes from a skin sample, typically less than 5% of the size required in a graft. It has been clinically demonstrated to heal the burn site as effectively as a skin graft without creating a large donor site wound.

Avita's 2025 results came in line with market expectations, with revenue up 11%, meeting guidance. Reiterated 2026 guidance implies an acceleration of revenue growth to 15% at the midpoint. Fourth-quarter 2025 cash burn fell to USD 5 million from USD 6 million in the third quarter.

Avita's fourth-quarter 2025 sales of USD 18 million were 3% higher than the third quarter, driven by reimbursement support stabilizing. Newly released 2026 guidance implies 15% sales growth at the midpoint. Avita has also secured a new USD 60 million debt facility. Shares rose 9%.

We expect Avita’s RECELL to pose a significant challenge to the standard of care for larger burns, currently a skin graft sourced from elsewhere on the patient’s body. We believe Avita will be successful based on the product’s clinical performance, ease of use and relative price point. RECELL creates Spray-on Skin within 30 minutes from a skin sample, typically less than 5% of the size required in a graft. It has been clinically demonstrated to heal the burn site as effectively as a skin graft without creating a large donor site wound.

We expect Avita’s RECELL to pose a significant challenge to the standard of care for larger burns, currently a skin graft sourced from elsewhere on the patient’s body. We believe Avita will be successful based on the product’s clinical performance, ease of use and relative price point. RECELL creates Spray-on Skin within 30 minutes from a skin sample, typically less than 5% of the size required in a graft. It has been clinically demonstrated to heal the burn site as effectively as a skin graft without creating a large donor site wound.

Avita Medical's third-quarter sales of USD 17 million were 8% lower than the second quarter, negatively affected by reimbursement uncertainty since January. The midpoint of full-year guidance is cut 10% to USD 72 million, from USD 79 million. Shares declined 3% on the release.

We expect Avita’s RECELL to pose a significant challenge to the standard of care for larger burns, currently a skin graft sourced from elsewhere on the patient’s body. We believe Avita will be successful based on the product’s clinical performance, ease of use and relative price point. RECELL creates Spray-on Skin within 30 minutes from a skin sample, typically less than 5% of the size required in a graft. It has been clinically demonstrated to heal the burn site as effectively as a skin graft without creating a large donor site wound.

Avita Medical's CEO Jim Corbett is stepping down, while third quarter sales of USD 17 million were 8% lower than the second quarter. The firm will update 2025 guidance at its quarterly earnings result on Nov. 6. The trading update and leadership uncertainty sent shares down 17%.

We expect Avita’s RECELL to pose a significant challenge to the standard of care for larger burns, currently a skin graft sourced from elsewhere on the patient’s body. We believe Avita will be successful based on the product’s clinical performance, ease of use and relative price point. RECELL creates Spray-on Skin within 30 minutes from a skin sample, typically less than 5% of the size required in a graft. It has been clinically demonstrated to heal the burn site as effectively as a skin graft without creating a large donor site wound.

Avita completed a raise of USD 15 million through a private placement of 17 million CDIs issued at AUD 1.32, an 11% discount to the last closing price on Aug. 12, 2025. Shares were up 11% on the news, with the market expecting the raise to cover expenses until operating cash flow turns positive.

Avita Medical's second-quarter sales were flat on the first at USD 18 million, with full-year guidance cut by 24% to USD 79 million. While net loss reduced 29% sequentially to USD 10 million, cash burn didn't improve. Shares are down 14% on the result.

We expect Avita’s RECELL to pose a significant challenge to the standard of care for larger burns, currently a skin graft sourced from elsewhere on the patient’s body. We believe Avita will be successful based on the product’s clinical performance, ease of use and relative price point. RECELL creates Spray-on Skin within 30 minutes from a skin sample, typically less than 5% of the size required in a graft. It has been clinically demonstrated to heal the burn site as effectively as a skin graft without creating a large donor site wound.

Avita Medical's first-quarter 2025 sales grew just 1% on fourth-quarter 2024 to USD 18 million. Avita is also suspending its vitiligo efforts given uncertainty of achieving reimbursement support and cutting costs to focus on acute wound care. Shares fell as much as 20% on the result.

We expect Avita’s RECELL to pose a significant challenge to the standard of care for larger burns, currently a skin graft sourced from elsewhere on the patient’s body. We believe Avita will be successful based on the product’s clinical performance, ease of use and relative price point. RECELL creates Spray-on Skin within 30 minutes from a skin sample, typically less than 5% of the size required in a graft. It has been clinically demonstrated to heal the burn site as effectively as a skin graft without creating a large donor site wound.

We expect Avita’s RECELL to pose a significant challenge to the standard of care for larger burns, currently a skin graft sourced from elsewhere on the patient’s body. We believe Avita will be successful based on the product’s clinical performance, ease of use and relative price point. RECELL creates Spray-on Skin within 30 minutes from a skin sample, typically less than 5% of the size required in a graft. It has been clinically demonstrated to heal the burn site as effectively as a skin graft without creating a large donor site wound.

Fourth-quarter 2024 commercial revenue of USD 18.4 million declined 6% on the third quarter but is in line with our forecast for the full year. This resulted from some customers adjusting inventory levels and was previously flagged. We do not foresee this affecting Avita’s long-term opportunity. New orders were deferred late in the year, as is typically the case, but they resumed in early 2025. We leave our fiscal 2025 sales forecast of USD 101 million unchanged, within management’s USD 100 million to USD 106 million forecast, and implies 57% growth on the prior year driven by recent product launches. We maintain our AUD 5.40 fair value estimate for no-moat Avita Medical.

No-moat Avita Medical downgraded its fourth-quarter 2024 commercial revenue guidance by 21% to USD 18 million. It now expects full-year commercial revenue of USD 64 million compared with its previous guidance of USD 68 million-USD 70 million. The downgrade implies fourth-quarter 2024 commercial revenue declining 6% on third quarter 2024's. We have cut our 2024 revenue forecast by 6% to USD 65 million but leave our long-term estimates unchanged. We keep our AUD 5.40 fair value estimate with the time value of money and a stronger US dollar offsetting our near-term downgrade.

We expect Avita’s RECELL to pose a significant challenge to the standard of care for larger burns, currently a skin graft sourced from elsewhere on the patient’s body. We believe Avita will be successful based on the product’s clinical performance, ease of use and relative price point. RECELL creates Spray-on Skin within 30 minutes from a skin sample, typically less than 5% of the size required in a graft. It has been clinically demonstrated to heal the burn site as effectively as a skin graft without creating a large donor site wound.