Avita Medical Earnings: Outlook Remains Strong as Costs Decline

Fourth-quarter 2024 commercial revenue of USD 18.4 million declined 6% on the third quarter but is in line with our forecast for the full year. This resulted from some customers adjusting inventory levels and was previously flagged. We do not foresee this affecting Avita’s long-term opportunity. New orders were deferred late in the year, as is typically the case, but they resumed in early 2025. We leave our fiscal 2025 sales forecast of USD 101 million unchanged, within management’s USD 100 million to USD 106 million forecast, and implies 57% growth on the prior year driven by recent product launches. We maintain our AUD 5.40 fair value estimate for no-moat Avita Medical.