Company Reports

We will discontinue analyst coverage of Match on or about March 15, 2024. We provide analyst research and ratings on over 1,500 companies globally and periodically adjust our coverage according to investor interest and staffing.

Match further expanded margins in the fourth quarter, driven by strong top-line growth and cost control. Revenue growth accelerated mainly due to higher Tinder prices and early indications of Hinge’s network effect as user growth continued. We did not make any significant adjustments to our projections and continue to view narrow-moat Match Group as an attractive investment. We are maintaining our $65 fair value estimate.

On the back of online dating becoming mainstream, the number of internet and mobile device users increasing globally, and the growth of the singles population worldwide, Match Group with its portfolio of online dating brands has become the leader in this space. We believe the firm has carved out a narrow economic moat, thanks to network effects that continue to drive top- and bottom-line growth.

On the back of online dating becoming mainstream, the number of internet and mobile device users increasing globally, and the growth of the singles population worldwide, Match Group with its portfolio of online dating brands has become the leader in this space. We believe the firm has carved out a narrow economic moat, thanks to network effects that continue to drive top- and bottom-line growth.

Match Group’s price strategy is generating returns in terms of revenue growth, which, combined with continuing cost control, created operating leverage and produced an impressive third quarter. Third-quarter results displayed continuing strength of the Tinder app and its brand and further adoption and increased monetization of the Hinge app. Fourth-quarter guidance was disappointing, albeit mainly due to currency headwinds and recently heightened geopolitical tensions. Match’s initial 2024 revenue growth outlook was in line with our assumption. After reducing our longer-term revenue projections and margin assumptions—as we expect the narrow-moat firm to market its apps more aggressively next year and beyond—we are lowering our fair value estimate to $65 per share from $70.

After two consecutive quarters of declining revenue, Match Group returned to growth, driven by price increases in Tinder, further adoption of Hinge, and improvements in various features. The firm’s decision to not increase Tinder prices in non-U.S. markets was smart, given the higher price sensitivity in those areas. We expect further strengthening of user monetization to more than offset user decline, which we believe will likely return to growth for Tinder in 2024. We also expect the firm’s additional artificial intelligence-based features, such as more content creation tools, to further improve the user count on Tinder and its Match Group Asia apps. We are maintaining our $70 fair value estimate and believe the stock remains attractive.

While Match Group posted its second consecutive year-over-year quarterly revenue decline, our overall takeaway from the first quarter results was positive. We think Tinder's higher prices and further user adoption of Hinge with minimal cannibalization of Tinder will return growth to the top line, which, combined with continuing cost controls and lower user acquisition costs due to the firm's network effect, will expand margins this year and in 2024. We were also pleased with the firm's longer-term capital allocation strategy to return at least 50% of free cash flow to shareholders, more likely in the form of share buybacks. We are maintaining our $70 fair value estimate of narrow-moat Match and view the stock as attractive.

Match’s fourth-quarter results on the top and bottom lines missed expectations as macro uncertainty and currency exchange headwinds impacted revenue. The firm’s focus on cost efficiencies is paying off as the effect of lower revenue on operating margin was small. With a new organizational structure, Match could further improve operational efficiency. While first-quarter guidance was below expectations, the firm did not change its full-year 2023 guidance as it expects revenue growth acceleration and margin expansion in the second half of the year. We lowered our projections as the macro uncertainty is impacting user behavior more than we initially anticipated. As a result, we reduced our fair value estimate to $70 from $75.

On the back of online dating becoming mainstream, the number of internet and mobile device users increasing globally, and the growth of the singles population worldwide, Match Group with its portfolio of online dating brands has become the leader in this space. We believe the firm has carved out a narrow economic moat, thanks to network effects that continue to drive top- and bottom-line growth.

Match Group posted better-than-expected third-quarter results as growth in Tinder and Hinge offset the impact of the stronger dollar and further weakness in the firm’s other apps. An increase in users, accompanied by growth in revenue per user, on a constant currency basis, displayed the firm’s network effect moat source, which we believe the firm’s current and future portfolio of apps will help maintain. While management’s outlook for 2023 was below our expectation, we were pleased that the firm will invest in growth for Tinder and Hinge while applying further cost controls. After reducing our top- and bottom-line projections because of the macro uncertainty and the ongoing currency headwind, our fair value estimate now stands at $75, down from $83.

On the back of online dating becoming mainstream, the number of internet and mobile device users increasing globally, and the growth of the singles population worldwide, Match Group with its portfolio of online dating brands has become the leader in this space. We believe the firm has carved out a narrow economic moat, thanks to network effects that continue to drive top- and bottom-line growth.

Match reported disappointing second-quarter results mainly due to foreign-exchange headwinds, a further slowdown in Tinder growth, weakness in the Asia-Pacific region, and lack of growth in some of its established app brands. New CEO Bernard Kim has already taken steps to address the disappointing performance of Tinder and implement cost controls while continuing to invest in Hinge’s growth. While management provided disappointing second-half guidance, we expect a return to double-digit top-line growth accompanied by margin expansion in 2023, driven mainly by acceleration in Tinder growth and further monetization of Hinge. We are reducing our fair value estimate for narrow-moat Match to $83 per share from $107. This 4-star stock is down 17% in reaction to the Aug. 2 earnings release.

On the back of online dating becoming mainstream, the number of internet and mobile device users increasing globally, and the growth of the singles population worldwide, Match Group with its portfolio of online dating brands has become the leader in this space. We believe the firm has carved out a narrow economic moat, thanks to network effects that continue to drive top- and bottom-line growth.

On the back of online dating becoming mainstream, the number of internet and mobile device users increasing globally, and the growth of the singles population worldwide, Match Group with its portfolio of online dating brands has become the leader in this space. We believe the firm has carved out a narrow economic moat, thanks to network effects that continue to drive top- and bottom-line growth.

Match reported strong first-quarter results as top and bottom lines came in ahead of the FactSet consensus estimates. While the war in Ukraine and further requirements imposed by Google Play will continue to affect revenue and margins, we expect users to continue to be attracted to Match’s vast portfolio of dating apps which will support the firm’s network effect, drive growth on the top line and create operating leverage for margin expansion. On the leadership front, CEO Shar Dubey is stepping down but will remain on the board and serve as an advisor. The firm chose Bernard Kim, President of Zynga, to take the spot at the end of this month. We remain confident that the firm will continue to execute well by launching innovative features for its apps, further strengthening its network effect.

On the back of online dating becoming mainstream, the number of internet and mobile device users increasing globally, and the growth of the singles population worldwide, Match Group with its portfolio of online dating brands has become the leader in this space. We believe the firm has carved out a narrow economic moat, thanks to network effects that continue to drive top- and bottom-line growth.

Match Group reported sluggish fourth-quarter results that fell short of our estimates due to the lingering impact of the omicron variant and currency rates. Management expects these challenges will remain present through the first half of 2022, particularly in their Asian markets where mobility restrictions have lagged North America and Europe. For the full-year 2021, total revenue was just shy of $3 billion, meeting management's expectations of a 25% increase year over year, showing resilience, despite the headwinds.

Match’s third-quarter results missed the FactSet consensus estimates on the top and bottom lines. However, we were pleased that newer apps such as Hinge, not just Tinder, increased their contribution to higher user monetization, displaying the firm’s network effect moat source. With more enhancements to Tinder and new products from the Hyperconnect technology, we think Match is well-positioned to attract more payers and grow the top line at double-digit rates, accommodated by margin expansion through 2025. However, we believe narrow-moat Match remains overvalued as it continues to trade at a premium to our $118 fair value estimate.

Match reported mixed second-quarter results with revenue exceeding the FactSet consensus estimates while the bottom line came in slightly short. The firm’s continuing growth in users and revenue per user displayed its network effect moat source, supporting our narrow moat rating. However, the acquisition of Hyperconnect could pressure gross margin a bit. We continue to view the stock overvalued given our unchanged $118 fair value estimate and we continue to recommend new investors to wait for a bigger pullback before investing.

On the back of online dating becoming mainstream, the number of Internet and mobile device users increasing globally, and the growth of the singles population worldwide, Match Group with its portfolio of online dating brands has become the leader in this space. We believe the firm has carved out a narrow economic moat, thanks to network effects that continue to drive top- and bottom-line growth.