Match’s Q4 Results and Q1 Guidance Disappoint, but Turnaround Likely in the Second Half; $70 FVE

Match’s fourth-quarter results on the top and bottom lines missed expectations as macro uncertainty and currency exchange headwinds impacted revenue. The firm’s focus on cost efficiencies is paying off as the effect of lower revenue on operating margin was small. With a new organizational structure, Match could further improve operational efficiency. While first-quarter guidance was below expectations, the firm did not change its full-year 2023 guidance as it expects revenue growth acceleration and margin expansion in the second half of the year. We lowered our projections as the macro uncertainty is impacting user behavior more than we initially anticipated. As a result, we reduced our fair value estimate to $70 from $75.