ResMed Faces Near-Term Headwinds but Long-Run Strategy and Outlook Sound

While narrow-moat ResMed’s fourth-quarter revenue grew 2.7% on the prior year, the top line was separately boosted by once-off ventilator sales of USD 125 million, adding an additional 6% to total gains. However, the near-term outlook is subdued as current sleep apnea diagnosis rates are tracking below the previous corresponding period, or pcp, and coronavirus-related ventilator sales are expected to trail off. These headwinds lead us to trim our previous fiscal 2021 revenue and adjusted EPS estimates by 3%. Nonetheless, following a transfer of analyst coverage, our long run view is broadly unchanged. We expect ResMed to continue to grow strongly and gain share within the respiratory devices market. As such, we reduce our fair value estimate only slightly, to USD 133 (AUD 18.30) from USD 134 (AUD 20.00), including updating the USD/AUD exchange rate to 0.72 from 0.67 prior. Shares continue to screen as substantially overvalued.