No-Moat Caltex Marginally Beats Guidance in a Tough 2019. Our AUD 34 FVE Unchanged.

We make no change to our AUD 34.00 fair value estimate for no-moat Caltex. The company reported a 38% decline in underlying 2019 replacement cost NPAT to AUD 344 million, somewhat ahead of our AUD 327 million expectations. Underlying earnings excludes a net AUD 39 million in post-tax gains, including AUD 53 million pretax gain of sale of retail sites. And despite being aided by a large net increase in payables, net operating cash flow was better than we’d expected, up by 42% to AUD 850 million.