Ampol: Improved Convenience Margins More Than Offset Volume Decline

We marginally raise our 2024 earnings per share forecast to AUD 3.74 with no-moat Ampol’s first-quarter 2024 trading result. However, our AUD 35 fair value estimate stands, with our midcycle estimates largely unchanged. The 2024 EPS forecast equates to a P/E of 10 at the current share price, and our AUD 2.25 dividend per share forecast translates to a healthy 6.0% fully franked yield. That doesn’t include the potential for another special eventually being declared—Ampol paid an AUD 0.60 per share special in 2023.