Ampol Ltd

ALD: XASX (AUS)

Morningstar Rating for Stocks	Fair Value	Economic Moat	Capital Allocation
	A$47.00	Wyfj	Ycbthnd

Softer Fourth-Quarter Refiner Margin Trims our 2019 Forecast. Our FVE Regardless Upped to AUD 34.00.

Mark Taylor

Jan 19, 2020

We increase our Caltex fair value estimate to AUD 34.00 from AUD 33.50, equivalent to the time value of money. But we reduce our 2019 group EPS forecast by 5% to AUD 1.30, following a weaker than forecast refiner margin of USD 7.51 per barrel versus USD 10.53 in the third quarter. Impacts from North Sea crude markets, petrol stock builds in the U.S. and Asia, and weaker demand for Asian diesel from Europe are the cause.

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