Ampol Ltd

ALD: XASX (AUS)

Morningstar Rating for Stocks	Fair Value	Economic Moat	Capital Allocation
	A$47.00	Rlswk	Fdskknzs

Some Key Takeaways from Caltex’s Investor Day. No Change to our AUD 33.50 FVE.

Mark Taylor

Dec 11, 2019

We make no change to our AUD 33.50 fair value estimate following Caltex’s recent investor day. Our fair value estimate equates to an unchanged 2023 EV/EBITDA of 7.3, P/E of 15.9, and dividend yield of 3.5%. We assume a five-year group EBITDA CAGR of 6.1% to AUD 1.5 billion by 2023, the CAGR flattered by 2018’s profit dip. At AUD 34.14, Caltex shares trade close to fair value.

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