Harley's Recovery Contingent on Product Innovation to Buoy Consistent Demand

We lowered Harley-Davidson’s moat to narrow from wide in 2024. We still see brand equity stemming from a long history of innovation, manufacturing experience, and a dealer network that has given Harley a dominant position in the US motorcycle market. However, we think its brand intangible advantage has declined in recent years, lowering our conviction in Harley’s ability to maintain market share and restore historical operating margin metrics, resulting in more tepid economic profits ahead.