Virgin Australia's Fuel Cost Burden to Rise as Refining Hedge Decreases

Virgin's new market position is a clear improvement, materially reducing complexity, lowering capital intensity, and improving margins. It has repositioned toward a midmarket value proposition, placing fares between Qantas' full-service offering and its budget subsidiary Jetstar. At this price point, Virgin is targeting premium leisure travelers, small to medium-sized businesses, and value-conscious corporates. We expect it to maintain roughly one-third of Australia's domestic aviation market in a two-player market with Qantas.