MGM Positioned to Benefit From an Improving Vegas Calendar Amid Diller's Acquisition Offer

MGM's Las Vegas (56% of 2025 EBITDAR) demand should rebound in 2026, supported by a stronger convention calendar and economic growth. Beyond 2026, MGM's Vegas resorts stand to benefit from the NCAA national football championship in 2027, while 2028 entertains the NCAA basketball Final Four and the start of the A's MLB team's relocation, with the Super Bowl in 2029, and a potential NBA expansion team in the future. Also, there have been very minimal industry supply additions in Vegas; this should support solid industry Strip occupancy, which stood at around 80% in 2025. Additionally, MGM’s casinos are positioned to benefit from multi-billion-dollar US sports betting and i-gaming markets, generating an estimated 12% of the company's 2030 sales (based on its 50% ownership of BetMGM) despite intense competition. However, the US doesn’t offer the long-term growth potential or regulatory barriers of Macao; thus, we do not believe the region contributes to a moat for MGM.