The a2 Milk Co Ltd

ATM: XNZE (NZL)

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A2 Milk: Chinese Births Are Declining, but We Raise Our Fair Value on Lower Discount Rate

Angus Hewitt

Jan 20, 2026

After increasing slightly in 2024, births in China are falling again. There were about 8 million births in China in 2025, 17% fewer than in 2024, per the Bureau of Statistics of China. This represents a sharp decline from around 15 million births in 2019. Shares in a2 Milk fell about 12%.

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The a2 Milk Co Ltd

A2 Milk: Chinese Births Are Declining, but We Raise Our Fair Value on Lower Discount Rate

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