Company Reports

A2 Milk's fiscal 2026 EBITDA was NZD 284 million, 2% lower than last year. Revenue grew 12%, and English-label and fresh milk earnings grew. But operating losses at the newly acquired and underutilized Pokeno facility, in addition to Chinese-label infant formula supply constraints, offset this.

A2 Milk has built a brand that we expect to generate economic profits for years to come. China is the key battleground. A2's future growth relies heavily on further market share gains in the Chinese infant formula market, which we estimate makes up the vast majority of earnings.

A2 Milk has built a brand that we expect to generate economic profits for years to come. China is the key battleground. A2's future growth relies heavily on further market share gains in Chinese infant formula market, which we estimate makes up the vast majority of earnings.

A2 Milk lowered its full-year guidance, with supply chain disruptions preventing it from meeting demand for infant formula in China. Management now expects low to midteens revenue growth in fiscal 2026, from midteens prior, and EBITDA margins of 14.0%-14.5%, down from 15.5%-16.0%. Shares fell 12%.

A2 Milk's interim 2026 EBITDA was NZD 155 million, 18% higher than last year on a continuing basis. The result was driven by revenue growth of about 19%, with double-digit sales growth across all segments as a2 takes share in key categories.

A2 Milk has built a brand that we expect to generate economic profits for years to come. China is the key battleground. A2's future growth relies heavily on further market share gains in Chinese infant formula market, which we estimate makes up the vast majority of earnings.

A2 Milk has built a brand that we expect to generate economic profits for years to come. China is the key battleground. A2's future growth relies heavily on further successful penetration of the Chinese infant formula market, which we estimate makes up the vast majority of earnings.

After increasing slightly in 2024, births in China are falling again. There were about 8 million births in China in 2025, 17% fewer than in 2024, per the Bureau of Statistics of China. This represents a sharp decline from around 15 million births in 2019. Shares in a2 Milk fell about 12%.

A2 Milk lifts its full-year guidance, with all product categories trading better than it expected. Management now expects low double-digit revenue growth in fiscal 2026, from prior guidance of high single-digit growth. EBITDA margin guidance, of 15% to 16%, is unchanged.

A2 Milk has built a brand that we expect to generate economic profits for years to come. China is the key battleground. A2's future growth relies heavily on further successful penetration of the Chinese infant formula market, which we estimate makes up the vast majority of earnings.

The a2 Milk Company's fiscal 2025 EBITDA grew 17% on last year to NZD 274 million thanks to strong market share growth in Chinese infant formula. The company also says it will buy a manufacturing facility in Pokeno and sell its 75% stake in Mataura Valley Milk.

A2 Milk has built a brand that we expect to generate economic profits for years to come. China is the key battleground. A2's future growth relies heavily on further successful penetration of the Chinese infant formula market, which we estimate makes up the vast majority of earnings.

Our prior note had financial data in millions when it should have been thousands. This has been corrected. Calendar 2024 births in China rose about 6% to 9.5 million, per the Bureau of Statistics of China. But this is well below about 15 million births in 2019, weighing on A2 Milk's target market.

Births in China collapsed in the aftermath of the covid-19 pandemic. The latest data from the Bureau of Statistics of China shows calendar 2024 births in China rose about 6% to 9.5 million, well below about 15 million births in 2019, reducing the size of A2 Milk's target market.

A2 Milk has built a brand that we expect to protect economic profits for years to come. China is the key battleground. A2's future growth relies heavily on further successful penetration of the Chinese infant formula market, which we estimate makes up the vast majority of earnings.

A2 Milk has built a brand that we expect to protect economic profits for years to come. China is the key battleground. A2's future growth relies heavily on further successful penetration of the Chinese infant formula market, which we estimate makes up the vast majority of earnings.

A2 Milk reported interim 2025 EBITDA of NZD 119 million, up 5% on last year. All segments' sales grew, including the core Chinese infant formula business. Management upgraded fiscal 2025 guidance, now expecting low to mid-double-digit revenue growth and slightly higher EBITDA margins than last year.

A2 Milk increased fiscal 2025 revenue guidance to mid- to high-single-digit growth, from prior guidance of mid-single-digit growth. The company still expects a roughly flat EBITDA margin. Separately, a2 announced its inaugural dividend policy to pay out 60% to 80% of underlying net profit.

A2 Milk has built a brand that we expect to protect economic profits for years to come. China is the key battleground. A2's future growth relies heavily on further successful penetration of the Chinese infant formula market, which we estimate makes up the vast majority of earnings.

The outlook for infant formula volume growth in China is relatively bleak. Birth rates have fallen for a number of years, exacerbated by Covid-19. In addition, temporary supply constraints with manufacturing partner Synlait are set to weigh on fiscal 2025 sales volumes.