MGM Seeing Industry Demand Softness in Vegas, While Its Macao Resorts Are Enjoying Higher Visitation

MGM's Las Vegas (59% of 2024 EBITDAR) demand is being pressured near term by lower consumer sentiment amid uncertain US tariff policy, but we expect a rebound starting in 2026, helped by a stronger convention calendar and enduring GDP-like growth with the addition of sports and entertainment options in the region. Also, there have been very minimal industry supply additions in Vegas this decade; this should support solid industry Strip occupancy, which stood at around 90% in 2024. Additionally, MGM’s casinos are positioned to benefit from multi-billion-dollar US sports betting and i-gaming markets, generating an estimated 13% of the company's 2029 sales (based on its 50% ownership of BetMGM) despite intense competition. However, the US doesn’t offer the long-term growth potential or regulatory barriers of Macao; thus, we do not believe the region contributes to a moat for MGM.