Orange on the Right Track to Close a Healthy 2025; Our Fair Value Estimate Is EUR 14.30

Orange operates in several countries, but its strongest region is France, where it enjoys a comfortable position as the incumbent operator and has good relationships with the government, which owns 23% of the company. In France, Orange tries to defend its market share from competitors, especially the Iliad, which is the most aggressive. Orange normally offsets slight customer losses with low-single-digit price increases, maintaining revenue flattish. Orange has been the main installer of fiber-optic cables in France, which results in better unit economics for the company in the long term, as the payment scheme set by French regulators favors players that took more risks in the buildout phase. French broadband prices are holding up relatively well so far in 2025, while there is more pressure on the mobile side as peer SFR has increased promotional activity.